Sector Spotlight Update |
By Price Headley |
Published
09/26/2007
|
Stocks
|
Unrated
|
|
Sector Spotlight Update
Last week we caught up with some of our 'open' sector trends, and today we'd like to tie up a few more of those loose ends. We still won't get to touch on all of the ideas we've looked at of late, but this should get through most of them. Let's start with biotech.
Biotech
The last time we looked at the AMEX Biotech Index (BTK) was on June 5, when we said the uptrend was over and a downtrend was nigh. We didn't know how right we were. The index continued to fall from 818 all the way to a low of 735 (on August 16) before the selling was done. However, take a really close look at what happened that day. Not only did the market start a rebound that day, but BTK also found support at a very long-term support line.
AMEX Biotech Index (BTK) - Daily
Since then, who would have ever guessed these stocks have been among the top performers? It's true - the biotech index is up 9.4% since the 16th, while the S&P 500 is only up 7.6%. That's not a huge margin, but it also hasn't been much time.
So where to next for BTK? Let's just stick with the wide bullish zone it's been comfortable in since 2003. By the time it reaches the upper boundary, it should be somewhere around 876. That's not a huge move - only about 50 points from here. If you can find the best of the best though (i.e. the leading stocks), you might be able to squeeze out a little extra gravy.
REITs
On August 15 we cancelled our bearish view on REITs, locking in a pretty decent downtrend on the Dow Jones REIT Index (RCI). It's a good thing we did what we did when we did it. REITs have been on a roll since August 16. By how much? Try a 10.9% rebound since August 16 (topping biotech).
This was what we were warning you about - the potential for a huge move, as interest rates were coming into focus. At the time we didn't know whether it would be bullish or bearish, but we have a pretty good picture now. And, considering Bernanke is probably going to keep interest rates at 'REIT friendly' levels for a while, we're getting pretty curious here.
The Dow Jones REITs Index (not the RCI, but the USRI) is already back above the 50-day average, and back above a major resistance line. The 200-day line looms at 131. Historically the 200-day line has been a great make-or-break point for REITs, so you could justify using that as a final line in the sand. Others with a more speculative spirit may already see all the bullishness they need to see.
U.S. REITs Index (USRI) - Daily
Water
Back on August 31 we went bullish on water....not so much the utilities, but the water-related companies (infrastructure, purification, etc.). The closest approximation we had to a true water sector index was the ISE Water Index (HHO).
Since then, we've not been disappointed, though not exactly thrilled. HHO gained 2.5% during that time. That's a decent start, but not enough for us to raise the stop. It looks like we're headed for a slight dip; we hope to see support around the 10- or 20-day line.
ISE Water Index (HHO) - Daily
Home Construction
You'd think for the same reason REITs perked up, the homebuilders might do the same. After all, lower interest rates were designed to spur a little something in the hosing market, which should include a little 'new home' activity. Well, either it didn't, or nobody cares. The Dow Jones Home Construction Index (DJUSHB) hit a new multi-year low on Monday.
Dow Jones Home Construction Index (DJUSHB) - Daily
Two worth watching are telecom, and utilities. More on those later, when and if the story develops. Let's just say those two arenas have been a little more impressive than others have been lately.
Dow Jones Telecom (DJUSTL)/Utilities (DJUSUT) - Daily
Price Headley is the founder and chief analyst of BigTrends.com.
|