Sector Spotlight Update |
By Price Headley |
Published
10/24/2007
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Stocks
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Unrated
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Sector Spotlight Update
Over the last few weeks we've put a lot of irons in the fire, so to speak, with our sector forecasts. Today we want to devote some time to cleaning those calls up, or out.
Water
Back on August 31, we loved water stocks. The ISE Water Index (HHO) had just bounced up and off its 200-day moving average line, and looked ready to resume its long-term uptrend. We also liked the PowerShares Water EFT (PHO) for the same reason. The call did get off to a decent start with some upside movement in September. October, however, hasn't been as fruitful.
We were almost ready to pull the plug on this opinion, until this week. The 50-day moving average line appears to have stepped in as support. Now it looks like this trend is going to remain bullish, as well as volatile.
Remember, our target for this trend is somewhere between 90 and 100. We won't really know where to call it quits until we can see how things start to pan out once in that range. The stop in the opinion comes with any close under the 200-day average, currently at 81.66.
ISE Water Index (HHO) - Daily
Insurers
On September 7 we went bearish on the insurers, all segments. Since then, the insurers rebounded pretty sharply. The 'uncle point' should have been September 18, when the Dow Jones Life insurance Index (DJUSIL) crossed back above its 200- and 50-day lines on its way to even higher highs. The Property and Casualty Insurer Index (DJUSIP) wasn't too far behind. Though the DJUSIP chart shows trouble again, the life insurance stocks are still a question mark. All of them have been falling, but DJUSIL is finding some support where DJUSIP isn't. Either way, there's just not enough clear-cut reward left to play with these charts.
Dow Jones Life insurance Index (DJUSIL) - Daily
Property and Casualty Insurer Index (DJUSIP) - Daily
Telecom
Our telecom bullishness dates back many, many months, but we pounded the table again on July 20. We reminded you of that on September 14. Though the rest of September was outstanding for the Dow Jones Telecom Sector Index (DJUSTL), October has been a sore spot. The index hit resistance again near 195, as it did in May, but has fallen back to the 50-day line at 188.9.
The good news is, it looks like the 50-day average was support, since the chart appears to have bounced off of it. Being a long-term outlook, this may actually be an ideal entry spot.
Dow Jones Telecom Sector Index (DJUSTL) - Daily
The stop on the telecom call is now the 200-day line, at 183. We have no target here; this trend could last a while and we don't want to make an early exit.
Biotechnology
On September 25 we examined how the AMEX Biotechnology Index (BTK) had made a habit of bouncing between two bullish trend lines. At the time it was in the middle of an upswing, which we figured could make for a small trade-worthy move. We were counting on about a 50-point move to carry BTK up to the upper edge of this zone, around 876. At the time, the AMEX Biotechnology Index was trading at 820.
We got close to that 50-point rally with the high of 864.82 on October 15. But it didn't quite get to where we were hoping it would before making last week's big pullback. We still think the bigger pattern is on play here. Plus, the last couple of days have given hints that a bullish swing is in the works. We'll leave this opinion 'open' as is, expecting BTK to get at least above 876, if not all the way up to the upper resistance line.
Let's use the 200-day line as our stop here as well. It's at 789.3.
AMEX Biotechnology Index (BTK) - Weekly
Price Headley is the founder and chief analyst of BigTrends.com.
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