Energies
After canceling my road trips for the next several months I have had the opportunity to reflect on the nearly ridiculous run that the energy complex has seen this week and came away with a couple of observations and conclusions.  First, market hysteria is clearly prevalent, although one must acknowledge the slow starts the past two days and lack of clear direction to start out the day being indicative of a hesitant level of hysteria and participants attempting to avoid a short covering situation.  Not good for the bears.  Second, the last time the market held this type of uptrend was back in February where we witnessed a crude rally that led us to 22 out of 26 up trading days and over a 25% move in just over 5 weeks.  The current move is showing 13 of 16 trading days as positive closes and over a 15% rally in 3 weeks!  Eerily similar and another ugly situation for the bears.  Plus we got ourselves (us bears that is) in a can't win fundamental battle - hurricanes, Iran, refinery issues and summer driving demand/hot weather.  So what is going to make this market reverse?  We need about 4 weeks to get past the worst of the hurricane season and summer gas demand, a mild start to the winter and the Iran issue to get fixed before the early September deadline.  That is an awful lot, but throw in the potential for long profit taking and whatever nut waiting this long to hedge to put them on at these prices and you got yourself a possible correction.  Timing is impossible with no resistance in sight and overall I would say this market is creating a massive problem for itself if crude builds continue because the distillates will catch with the seasons changing around the corner.

Financials
Resistance continued to hold below 1250 and give bears a re-entry on a nice intraday reversal as crude is putting serious inflation worry pressure on the market.  Overall I remain bearish but I lightened up a bit heading into the weekend as Monday profit taking in crude my give the market a bounce.  Bonds surged on solid 10yr note auction results showing a better than expected demand for debt issues.  This reversed a poor start to the week with the 3yr and 5yr auctions and a steadfast response from the FOMC on Tuesday.  I remain a bear and see strength in the dollar forcing the bond market's hand.  The dollar broke through my expected support around 87, but the penetration is nothing to scare me out of this market just yet.  Look for the 9650 area to hold and don't say I'm chasing, but rather giving the market some potential near term variance before walking away from the single most defiant and important market call o my career as a writer.  This is not a reversal in the dollar but a retracement in a market that has run its bull course for the year.  Buy on the dip and don't say I didn't tell you so.  Everyone is getting all spooked by the moves this month but this initial shakeout is just what the market needed t establish a true base of support.  The Canadian is in a bull breakout, and I like a short at 8500.  The yen is bearish and the euro should play a little catch up on the dollar support.

Grains
Grain weakness persisted and a strong selloff in corn and wheat came on bearish supply reports this morning.  Look for a bottom line support to develop next week and a bull rally to ensue shortly.  Rice is a still a buy despite the gap down on the reports this morning.

Meats
Cattle broke down through critical support and remains a strong bear call for the next several weeks.  Hogs is still a buy and bellies found strong support on its trend line.

Metals
Gold strength broke through critical channel resistance on its over exaggerated move on dollar weakness.  The market got carried away, but I still look and feel like a poor excuse for a market forecaster.  $460 should hold and the market doesn't have the setup to breakout in my opinion.  I still beg you to buy 420 and 430 puts for Dec gold on the cheap.  Silver looks ready to collapse if gold gives it a push.  Copper continues to hold a solid trend line support but I remain a seller of calls and buyer of puts.  Platinum is a sell without a stop (dangerous) and palladium is a screaming long term buy.

Softs
Coffee is holding under 110 resistance and bulls need to wait for a breakout above this mark to commit themselves here.  Cocoa is falling on a lack of problems from the Ivory Coast and I am a long term buyer between 1250-1350.  Cotton is still a bear market - STILL.  OJ is a tough buy with a tight stop on Sept. at 89.10.  Sugar is ready to retrace but has a ways to go to turn bearish on a chart.  Lumber is ugly and on its way to 250.

James Mound, owner of JMTG Brokerage LLC, MoundReport.com and author of the book 7 Secrets, writes the Weekend Commodities Review Newsletter. Receive your free weekly subscription to the Weekend Review by e-mail. Click here.