Blue Chips Lower, While Nasdaq-100 Makes New Highs
The markets had a very interesting session technically, with the Nasdaq 100 making new 7 year highs and the S&P 500 failing again to confirm, actually having a negatively diverging session. Much of Nasdaq's gains can be attributed to Microsoft and s few other large caps having strong sessions.However,towards the end of the day they rolled over sharply and crushed the shipping stocks, in particular, one of the more popular groups of late. With the Chinese and solar groups weak as well it bodes ominously for the market.
Tomorrow's FOMC announcement could be the nail in the coffin or market savior ,depending on what they have to say.
The day’s session started with a move down from the get-go. Nasdaq tried to rally mid-morning. The S&P 500 responded, but only marginally so. They then pulled back and the S&P 500 went to nominal new lows. Nasdaq held the 50% retracement, and at mid-day they rallied sharply on the Nasdaq 100, taking it to new 7-year highs.
The SPX responded by moving up to resistance and failing, and then rolling over late in the day. The Nasdaq 100 also rolled over as mentioned earlier.
Net on the day the Dow was down 76 1/2, the S&P nearly 10, but the Nasdaq 100 was up more than 4 points today. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) also advanced 0.74.
The technicals, however, were miserable, nearly 2 to 1 negative on NYSE Advance/declines. Up/down volume was more than 2 to 1 negative. Total volume was a light 1.15 billion on New York. On Nadsaq, advance-declines were about 3 to 2 negative, with up/down volume 11 to 9 negative.
TheTechTrader.com board was negative for the most part, but there were some extremes today. Shippers got hammered! DryShips (DRYS) lost nearly 23 on 11 million shares, a major high-volume negative reversal. Excel Maritime (EXM) was down 16 1/2 on 3 1/2 million, and TBSI fell 9.20 on 1.1 million.
Solar stocks, particularly the junior solars, had some negative reversals,as well, with Ascent Solar (ASTI) dropping from 19.69 to 17.56, closing at 17.80, down 1.04. Similar negative reversals occurred in Canadian Solar (CSIQ) and China Sunergy (CSUN), down 1.25. First Solar (FSLR), one of the leaders in that group, dropped 6 1/2 today, closing near the lows for the day.
Energy Conversion Devices (ENER) dropped 1.30 in the solar energy group, and the XLE, which we shorted today, dropped 2.42, with the $3 1/2 drop in the price of crude oil.
In the Chinese sector, Aluminum Corp. of China (ACH) dropped 3.63, Home Inns & Hotels (HMIN) 4.20, CSUN 1.25, and Global Solutions (GSOL) 1.90.
On the plus side, GigaMedia (GIGM) continues to amaze, now up 150% in the last 3 months, closing at 24.61, up 1.05. Recent portfolio position Cepheid (CPHD) jumped 2.33, closing at 26.07, reaching as high as 27.30, a new all-time high earlier in the day.
The SDS jumped 62 cents, closing at 50.56. Other stocks of note on the plus side, Superconductor (SCON) had a stellar session, jumping as high as 2 1/2 to 13.77, but gave up more than 2 points of its gain, closing at 11.66, up 56 cents today.
FLML, a recent Chart of the Day, was up 35 cents, but substantially off its high.
Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, despite the new multi-year highs on the Nasdaq 100, the S&P is far from it and rolled over at the end of the day, closing at the lows for the day, despite the gains in the Nasdaq 100.
At tomorrow's FOMC meeting the Fed better not have anything to say that the Street interprets as negative, because it could get ugly for the indices if that’s the case
Harry Boxer is a technical consultant to many Wall Street hedge funds and large institutional traders, and author of TheTechTrader.com, a real-time diary of his day, swing and intermediate-term trades. For more of Harry Boxer, sign up for a free 15-day trial to his Real-Time Technical Trading Diary, or sign up for a free 30-day trial to his Top Charts of the Week service.
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