Bulls Run on FOMC News |
By Harry Boxer |
Published
10/31/2007
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Stocks
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Unrated
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Bulls Run on FOMC News
It was a wild and crazy day today as we expected. Some post-FOMC extreme volatility did occur. The Fed lowered their rates by a quarter percent and the first reaction was a very sharp setback. That setback held support, particularly on the S& P 500, where key support over the last few days have been 1530. They reached 1529-30 and reversed sharply, running all the way back up to 1553 inside of 35 minutes. A near 50% retracement held intraday moving average and price support, and they came on strong at the close.
The Dow closed up 137.50, which was about 165 points off the low. The S&P 500 was up 18.36, 20 points off the low. The Nasdaq 100 closed near 2239, up 31, a reversal of about 40 points. So, a very strong post-FOMC reaction after an initial sharp drop.
That resulted in some strong technicals, with the NYSE advance-declines 3 to 1 positive. Nasdaq was a little less than 2 to 1 positive. Up/down volume was nearly 4 to 1 positive on New York with just under 1.6 billion. Nasdaq traded 2 1/2 billion, and had a 3 to 1 positive ratio.
TheTechTrader.com board was strong, but there were some issues on both sides. The largest gainers today were the snapbacks in the shipping group, with DryShips (DRYS) up 9.86, at 117.86. Excel Maritime (EXM) also snapped back sharply, up 6.68, as did TBSI, up 3.79 today. Tech stock SIRF on terrific earnings & raised guidance jumped 6.51 today on 11.8 million shares. Other multiple point gainers included Aluminum Corp. of China (ACH), up 1.81. Global Solutions (GSOL) snapped back 1.32, Home Inns & Hotels (HMIN) 1.82 all in the strong Chinese sector today. STV was up 1.06, and VMware (VMW) also gained 4.48 today.
Other significant movers included the XLE, the energy sector ETF, up 1.86, as crude oil set an all-time high today at 94 1/2, up 3 1/2 today. Gold, in aftermarket electronic trading, was up over $800 an ounce today.
On the downside, there were some losers, with FLML getting hammered for 1.93. The QID dropped 1.05 , SDS 1.15 and the DUG 1.48, all ETF short instruments.
Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices, particularly the Nasdaq 100, exploded to new multi-year highs, and closed near the highs for the day, year and multi-year in a very strong post-FOMC reaction. The S&P 500, however, though it did reach up to 1553, closing at around 1549, is still substantially below the October peak of 1577. So we have a long ways to go there to confirm the Nasdaq gains. We always wait to see within a day or two after the FOMC announcement when usually the true trend of the market will assert itself.
We'll see if they can continue to push them higher, or whether they move towards a retest of key support, which is now in the 2190-95 zone on the Nasdaq 100 and the 1529-30 area on the S&P 500.
Those are the areas we'll be keeping close tabs on the remainder of the week. Harry Boxer is a technical consultant to many Wall Street hedge funds and large institutional traders, and author of TheTechTrader.com, a real-time diary of his day, swing and intermediate-term trades. For more of Harry Boxer, sign up for a free 15-day trial to his Real-Time Technical Trading Diary, or sign up for a free 30-day trial to his Top Charts of the Week service.
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