Corcoran Technical Trading Patterns for November 1 |
By Clive Corcoran |
Published
11/1/2007
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Stocks
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Unrated
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Corcoran Technical Trading Patterns for November 1
The Federal Reserve delivered the expected 25 basis points and traders eventually mounted a minor celebration as they pushed many stocks higher after the rather sharp sell-off that immediately followed the announcement. The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) was one of the main beneficiaries of the easing as it pushed ahead by 1.5% to break convincingly above 2820.
Parts of the FOMC statement could be interpreted as an attempt by the committee to underline the perception that it is not captive to the market's wishes and that it acts in the interest of the overall economy rather than coming to the rescue of financial intermediaries that have miscalculated in their risk management policies. Nevertheless it can safely be assumed that, if there is further erosion of confidence in the asset-backed paper market and further signs of collateral damage and consumer fatigue arising from increasing foreclosures etc., the Fed will once again ride to the rescue at the next FOMC meeting.
The interest rate decision gave a powerful boost to the the Dow Jones Utilities (^DJU) which pushed out of the constructive chart pattern that was discussed in the weekend commentary.
One sector that showed little benefit from yesterday's rate decision was retailing. The S&P Retail Index (^RLX) barely moved and still looks as though it could be setting up for a new 2007 low.
TRADE OPPORTUNITIES/SETUPS FOR THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 1, 2007
The patterns identified below should be considered as indicative of eventual price direction in forthcoming trading sessions. None of these setups should be seen as specifically opportune for the current trading session.
I would reiterate my interest in Polycom (PLCM) which has the right characteristics of a bullish pullback pattern.
Newmont (NEM) exploded to the upside out of a chart pattern that often produces such breakout behavior.
One stock that I have been following closely for some weeks is Garmin (GRMN) and, as mentioned here before, I have been expecting another downdraft for some time. I took a loss on a recent short trade as the stock appeared to have overcome the more difficult commercial landscape that was caused by Nokia's acquisition of Navteq announced at the beginning of last month.
Events took another interesting turn yesterday as Garmin decided to trump the bid made by the European sat-nav powerhouse TomTom NV for control of TeleAtlas which, other than Navteq, is the other major map provider.
Investors in both Garmin and TomTom were clearly perturbed by the bidding war for TeleAtlas and in Amsterdam where TomTom trades, almost 20% was wiped off of TomTom's market cap. A lot rides for both companies on the results of this bidding competition. My money would be on TomTom in the longer term to consolidate its position as the premier geo-positioning player. Meanwhile Garmin's shareholders can expect a bumpy ride with further sell-offs a distinct possibility until the TeleAtlas acquisition is settled in favor of one of the two suitors.
CMS Energy moved quite decisively above all three moving averages in yesterday's trading.
Schering Plough (SGP) has pulled back in quite a steep channel on subdued volume and may find rejection at the intersection of two moving averages which I have marked on the chart.
Clive Corcoran is the publisher of TradeWithForm.com, which provides daily analysis and commentary on the US stock market. He specializes in market neutral investing and and is currently working on a book about the benefits of trading with long/short strategies, which is scheduled for publication later this year.
Disclaimer The purpose of this article is to offer you the chance to review the trading methodology, risk reduction strategies and portfolio construction techniques described at tradewithform.com. There is no guarantee that the trading strategies advocated will be profitable. Moreover, there is a risk that following these strategies will lead to loss of capital. Past results are no guarantee of future results. Trading stocks and CFD's can yield large rewards, but also has large potential risks. Trading with leverage can be especially risky. You should be fully aware of the risks of trading in the capital markets. You are strongly advised not to trade with capital.
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