Categories
Search
 

Web

TigerShark
Popular Authors
  1. Dave Mecklenburg
  2. Momentum Trader
  3. Candlestick Trader
  4. Stock Scalper
  5. Pullback Trader
  6. Breakout Trader
  7. Reversal Trader
  8. Mean Reversion Trader
  9. Frugal Trader
  10. Swing Trader
  11. Canslim Investor
  12. Dog Investor
  13. Dave Landry
  14. Art Collins
  15. Lawrence G. McMillan
No popular authors found.
Website Info
 Free Festival of Traders Videos
Article Options
Popular Articles
  1. A 10-Day Trading System
  2. Use the Right Technical Tools When You Trade
  3. Which Stock Trading Theory Works?
  4. Conquer the Four Fears
  5. Advantages and Disadvantages of Different Trading Systems
No popular articles found.
What Did European Central Bank President Trichet Say?
By John Kicklighter | Published  11/8/2007 | Currency , Futures , Options , Stocks | Unrated
What Did European Central Bank President Trichet Say?

Today is all about central banks. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England both left interest rates unchanged, which was right in line with the market's expectations. Trichet's speech which was one of the most anticipated event risks this week but it proved to be a non-event. For a central banker like Trichet, this may be the most desired market reaction because central bankers hate volatility.

Ultimately Trichet is very worried about inflation but at the same time he feels that oil and commodity prices could weigh on growth. As a result, he did not indicate that raising rates was their immediate intention (note: he did not use the words strong vigilance). Instead, the ECB wants to wait for more information before deciding what to do next with interest rates, so don't expect a move in December. For the time being, they are still leaving the door open to raise interest rates in the first quarter of next year. In regards to the Euro, Trichet did not mention the currency at all in his introductory statement. Only in the question and answer session was he forced to address dollar weakness and euro strength. Trichet did his best to dance around the question about exchange rates, repeating his stance that disorderly movements are undesirable and the strong dollar is in the interest of the US. It is not a coincidence that Trichet avoided talking about the Euro because inflation is still a big problem and they need a strong Euro to bring inflationary pressures down. Overall his tone is still more hawkish than dovish and even though we are disappointed that he did not say that strong vigilance is needed towards inflation, ECB policy remains positive for the Euro. Next up is the Federal Reserve's Ben Bernanke who will be addressing the Joint Economic Committee.

Here are more details on what Trichet said:

- Recent data confirm upside price risk in mid-term

- They stand ready to counter upside inflation risks

- Data supports favorable mid-term growth outlook

- Market turmoil means outlook now more uncertain

- ECB needs more information before deciding policy

- Will monitor all developments very closely

- Firm and timely ECB action will prevent price risks

- ECB will act to anchor inflation expectations and this is key amid volatility

- ECB needs to pay great attention to markets in period ahead

- Economic outlook remains solid and sentiment indicators point to sustained growth and they are still above historical average

- ECB sees growth around potential next year and consumption growth will add to expansion

- Balance risks to growth are on downside

- Level of uncertainty around economic outlook high - the risks to growth are from oil and commodities

- Sharp inflation increase is a concern and they think that inflation will be significantly above 3% in coming months

- Additional information needed to decide on rates and the ECB will ensure that price risks don't materialize.

- Disorderly movements of exchange rates are undesirable for movements to economic growth, brutal moves never welcome and recent moves have been abrupt

- Strong dollar is in the interest of the US

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.