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Reality Sets in as Holiday Euphoria Fades
By Toni Hansen | Published  11/27/2007 | Futures , Stocks | Unrated
Reality Sets in as Holiday Euphoria Fades

The market took a fall on Monday as the Thanksgiving holiday trading faded into the background. Volume was lighter than the average in recent weeks, but the bears were undeterred. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) lost 237.44 points (-1.8%) to close at 12,743.44. Citigroup Inc. (C) (-1.00, -3.1%) and JP Morgan Case & Co (JPM) (-1.49, -3.5%) were among the hardest hit within the index. The S&P 500 ($SPX) had a more difficult time, however, than even the Dow. It fell 2.3%, or 33.48 points, to close at 1,407. The Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX) came close. It shed 55.61 points (-2.1%) and ended the session at 2,541.

Top gainers on Monday included NTRI, SINA, SNDA, SOHU, and SKIL in the Nasdaq and RIG, VIP, GME, ART, DE, and OSG on the NYSE. James River Coal Co. (JRCC) also had a very strong session after reaching shipping agreements for coal at an average prices of $54.76, which was much higher than expected several months ago. Top Nasdaq losers were ISIL, GOOG, BIDZ, DRYS, ACAS, SHLD, IDCC, and JRJC. The main NYSE losers were EEM, EWZ, GS, CIT, PBR, VMW, PRU, and LVS.

In other markets, the 10-year Treasury bond rallied 1 17/32 to 103 18/32 with a yield of 3.816%. Gold futures rose $1.80 to $826.50/ounce, while crude oil futures fell 48 cents to $97.70/barrel after record highs in the prior session. They had been down as much as $1.68/barrel earlier in the session. Meanwhile, the euro continued onward to new record highs as the dollar fell to $1.4864 against the euro. Intraday it reached $1.4885 per euro.



Monday's session did not begin on such a dim note. The indices were actually still trading higher as the day began and they continued to climb early on. Between 10:00 am ET and 10:15 ET that buying began to roll over. The selling then began to kick in more quickly than the buying in the S&Ps and Dow after the Dow closed its Wednesday morning gap. The 5-minute 20 sma was a bit of support, but the downside was fairly steady into the 11:15 ET reversal period. At this point the indices were back at support from congestion in the previous week and the 5-minute 200 simple moving average intraday in the S&Ps, Dow, and Nasdaq Composite.



The momentum continued to turn over as the day progressed. The upside off the late morning support was very gradual. It picked up a little bit once a shallow Phoenix along the 5-minute 20 sma broke higher, but volume failed to confirm the move. When the 13:00 ET reversal period hit, the bears once again returned. The afternoon selling stalled at the 5-minute 20 sma and again at the 5-minute 200 sma, but the downside pressure continued to build and the market broke sharply lower into the last hour of trading with a free fall in the final 10 minutes of intraday trading.



Monday's downside holds off any correction off support at the moment. It leaves the door open for even more selling this week as Monday's breakdown follows through. The 100-week simple moving average and prior weekly lows from August are the upcoming support zones. The harder they hit, the slower the correction off the support will likely be. Any rapid upside will be difficult unless the momentum rounds off at lows with slower selling beforehand.

Toni Hansen is President and Co-founder of the Bastiat Group, Inc., and runs the popular Trading From Main Street. She can be reached at Toni@tradingfrommainstreet.com.