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Short-term Low?
By Harry Boxer | Published  01/9/2008 | Stocks | Unrated
Short-term Low?

The indices had two very distinct parts of the session. One was ugly and down hard, culminating with a sharp decline at mid-day reaching 1890 NDX and 1380 SPX. But at that point they reversed and sharply so and rallied hard in the last two hours, closing with sharp gains on the day, going away at the highs for the day, a tremendous rally likely fueled by short covering.

The Nasdaq 100 rallied from 1890 to 1949, a 59-point rally in less than 2 hrs. The S&P 500 in the same period of time rallied about 29 points and closed at its high for the day at 1409. The Dow rallied 235 and closed up 146, with the S&P 500 up 19 and the Nasdaq 100 up nearly 39. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) managed to get into the plus column, about 8 points off the low, up 1.23 on the day.

The technicals edged to the plus side, with advance-declines 3 to 2 positive on New York but slightly negative on Nasdaq, which is normal on late snapback rallies. The up/down volume did move solidly into the plus column by just under 2 to 1 on New York, where heavy volume of over 2.2 billion traded. Nasdaq had aheavy 2.8 billion traded today, with about an 8 to 5 positive ratio.

On TheTechTrader.com board, a lot of stocks came way off their lows but many did not quite get back into the plus column. An example of that was DryShips (DRYS), which was down at one point more than 8 points, closing down 4.60. It did manage to snap back nearly 4 points.

Among the point-plus gainers, the Q's were up 1 today, and nearly 1.50 off the low. Eschelon Corp. (ELON) gained 1 today.

DG FastChannel (DGIT) was strong all session, closing up 87 cents on the day. China Natural Resources (CHNR) gained 64 cents, Emcore (EMKR) 48 cents, FuelTek (FTEK) 41 cents, Global Solutions (GSOL) 38 cents, China Finance Online (JRJC) 38 cents, and UEPS up 69 cents.,

Taser (TASR), which got down to 10.11, closed at 12.54, down 74 cents on the day but nearly 2 1/2 points off the low on heavy volume of 5.3 million.

There were substantial losses in the shipping stocks, although they were way off their lows, as well. TBS International (TBSI) fell 2.65, but about 2 1/4 off the low. Excel Maritime (EXM) was about 2 1/4 off the low but still down 1.47 on the day.

That's how it looked for most of the junior solars as well, where Ascent Solar (ASTI) ended down 1.48 but rallied nearly 2 points off the low. Canadian Solar (CSIQ) closed 2.70 off the low, but still down 57 cents on the day. China Sunergy (CSUN), about 1.20 off the low, was down 1.36 on the day. Hoku Scientific (HOKU) was about 80 cents off the low, but still down 59 cents on the day.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices were oversold going into today, particularly on the S&P 500 and NDX. By mid-day they got to the point where a snapback looked way overdue, and they certainly got one, with a very strong steady rally, interrupted only by a 10-15 minute pullback with about 45 minutes to go. Then they continued higher into the close.

So it's likely we've seen at least a short-term low. We'll see if they can extend it tomorrow. More formidable overhead resistance near 1960 and then 1980 on the Nasdaq 100 are what we'll be watching. S&P resistance near current levels around 1410-12 and then the 1425-30 zone are the levels we'll be keeping an eye on tomorrow to see what additional progress the indices may be able to make.

Harry Boxer is a technical consultant to many Wall Street hedge funds and large institutional traders, and author of TheTechTrader.com, a real-time diary of his day, swing and intermediate-term trades. For more of Harry Boxer, sign up for a free 15-day trial to his Real-Time Technical Trading Diary, or sign up for a free 30-day trial to his Top Charts of the Week service.