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Sector Spotlight
By Price Headley | Published  01/10/2008 | Stocks | Unrated
Sector Spotlight

If you think a bearish tide doesn't sink all - or almost all - ships, you may want to scan through some charts of the major sectors and industries for the last few days. We had to look high and low for anything that wasn't getting destroyed.

Why fight the trend? Why not just jump on board a sinking ship with some short trades or put options? Well, we do that too. However, when things are bleak, we become curious about where the 'survivors' are. The arenas that can withstand the harsh selling like we've seen so far this year tend to have the kind of relative strength we like in bullish trades. And, the underlying stocks tend to lead a recovery effort once we finally get one. (And yes, we look for clear laggards when everything seems quite bullish...they make for great bearish trades.)

Just for some perspective (which will come in handy in a second), the S&P 500 is down 5.1% for the year so far, six days. It's down 7.6% for the last month, and is down 11.2% for the last three months.

Anyway, the sectors that managed to withstand a record-breaking bad start to the year are probably not a surprise to you: healthcare, utilities, and natural gas (which is technically an industry within the energy sector). Let's look at each one in a little detail.

Healthcare had already been in its own little bull trend. The S&P Healthcare Index (HCX) is even for the past three months, down 1% for the past month, and up 4.2% for the last two months, much better than the market did.

The S&P Healthcare Index (HCX) - Daily


Utilities, like healthcare, were also doing well independently of the market. The Dow Jones Utility Index (DJUSUT) is down 1.7% over the last month, up 2.8% for the last two months, and is up 3.1% for the last three months.

The Dow Jones Utility Index (DJUSUT) - Daily


Natural gas stocks are holding their own too. The AMEX Natural Gas Index (XNG) is higher by 1.3% for the month, ahead by 2.9% for the last two months, and up by 5.6% for the last three months.

AMEX Natural Gas Index (XNG) - Daily


So what? We wouldn't argue that single digit gains aren't anything to get overly excited about. However, we'd certainly argue that outperforming the market buy a double-digit differential (in percentage terms) is something to get excited about.

Were these the only charts to put up gains in a bearish environment? No. Energy stocks did pretty well, as did pharmaceuticals. Soft drink stocks (talk about obscure) also did really well. The reason we wanted to highlight healthcare, natural gas, and utilities is that we think they have the right stuff to sustain their current trends. If the market continues to weaken, or the economy does indeed slip into a recession, we feel these thee sectors could really start to shine.

We'll resume our normal sector analysis (with projections and stops) next week. We just wanted to get this bigger picture theme out there to you today.

Price Headley is the founder and chief analyst of BigTrends.com.