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Steep Decline in Stock Market from the Get-Go
By Harry Boxer | Published  01/15/2008 | Stocks | Unrated
Steep Decline in Stock Market from the Get-Go

A very negative session today, as yesterday's rally failed to get any follow-through. In fact, pre-market futures gapped lower and they went down all day. There was very little rallying back, and when they did they failed at initial resistance, until the last hour, when a sharp snapback took the Nasdaq 100 from 1885 to nearly 1910 in about 20 minutes. But in the last 20 minutes they gave back most of it, and the S&P gave back all of it and then some, closing at the lows for the day going away.

Net on the day the Dow closed at 12,501, down 277. The S&P 500 at around 1381 was down more than 35, and the Nasdaq 100 was down 55. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) was down 11.47 to a new multi-year low, and lost about 3 percent today.

The technicals were negative by about 3 to 1 on advance-declines on both exchanges. But down volume swamped the up volume by about 15 to 1 on New York, where about 1.8 billion traded. Nasdaq traded 2 1/3 billion, and down volume swamped up volume by nearly 9 to 1.

TheTechTrader.com board ran red all day, with major multiple-point losers across the board, including: Solarfun (SOLF) down 3.57, Sigma Designs (SIGM) 3.52, Global Solutions (GSOL) 3.30, Chindex (CHDX) 3.17, Canadian Solar (CSIQ) 3.04, DryShips (DRYS) 5.66, Excel Maritime (EXM) 2.21, TBS International (TBSI) 2.81, Ascent Solar (ASTI) 2.46, Akeena Solar (AKNS) 1.39, Emcore (EMKR) 1.23, Evergreen Solar (ESLR) 1.78, Evergreen Solar (ESLR) 1.97 and China Finance Online (JRJC) 1.78, and those are only the point-plus losers.

On the plus side, as you would expect the SDS jumped 2.62 to 60.59, and the QID jumped to 45.28, up 1.89.

Other gainers included Pharmasset (VRUS), which we highlighted a couple days ago, and which jumped 2.69, closing near the high for the day. Dendreon (DNDN) was up 27 cents and Cardica (CRDC) jumped 48 cents.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices tested and closed near the lows for last week, with the Nasdaq 100 actually taking that low out slightly before a bounce brought them back. But the trend and momentum are still down, and the indices are having a tough time even taking out minor support, and until momentum just swings to the plus side, the trend is still down and we may see lower prices before it's over.

After hours, Intel ( INTC) released disappointing earnings & the stock got clobbered for another $3.25 or 15%. With Intel being an important member of the NDX,SPX & DJI, as well as the SMH futures are showing additional BIG losses and we can expect a very negative opening tomorrow and additional losses.

The McClellan oscillator closed at -26 (down 83) The SPX oscillator -60 (down 40) & the NDX oscillator -56 (down 310), but they are not as steeply oversold as we’ve seen at important bottoms before! However, they could be setting up positive divergences and we’ll be watching them closely over the next few sessions.

Harry Boxer is a technical consultant to many Wall Street hedge funds and large institutional traders, and author of TheTechTrader.com, a real-time diary of his day, swing and intermediate-term trades. For more of Harry Boxer, sign up for a free 15-day trial to his Real-Time Technical Trading Diary, or sign up for a free 30-day trial to his Top Charts of the Week service.