Down Stock Market Session Sees Huge Rally Off Steep Opening Lows |
By Harry Boxer |
Published
01/22/2008
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Stocks
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Unrated
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Down Stock Market Session Sees Huge Rally Off Steep Opening Lows
The markets had a sharply lower start and a huge spike down, taking most of the indices to sharply lower levels and many of the technicals to levels not seen since 2002. They did manage to rally sharply off those lows after the Fed cut rates by three-fourths of a percent today, and took back a big chunk of the losses. In fact, with about 20 minutes to go they were at the highs for the day and not far from flat on the session. But they rolled over on some late selling and pulled back from the session highs.
Net on the day the Dow closed at 11,971, down 128 but about 337 points off the low. The S&P 500 was down 14.7, but way off the lows by 26 points. The Nasdaq 100 was down 48.48, closing at 1795, about 25 points off the high, but some 55 points off the low. At one point it was down as much as 80 points.
The pleasant surprise of the day was the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX), which soared 10.37, or nearly 3 percent, and if it wasn't for that the Nasdaq 100 would have had a much bigger loss today.
That's a positive sign, because you're seeing multi-year lows on the SOXX, and on a day like today it managed to gain 10.37, perhaps trying to lead the market back up. We'll see how that goes over the next few days.
Technicals did not make it back it back to the plus column by any means and closed with a negative bias, with advance-declines negative by about 3 to 2 on New York and 2 to 1 on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was narrower by 14 to 11 on New York with more than 2 1/2 billion traded. Nasdaq traded 3.15 billion, and had a little better than 4 to 1 negative ratio of declining over advancing volume.
TheTechTrader.com board was very negative, with most stocks lower, but several stocks did come back. Portfolio position Canadian Solar (CSIQ) came back from an early morning low of 14.74, closing at 18.59, up 79 cents, taking back all of its earlier losses on 2 1/3 million.
Sigma Designs (SIGM) had another fantastic reversal and jumped 6 1/2 off its low, closing at 41.09, up 90 cents on the day, a very nice reversal there.
Mercadolibre (MELI) at 47.71 was up 66 cents, with a 40.16 low, so nearly 8 points off its low. One incredible reversal there.
Those were the gainers on my board today, other than the short ETF instruments. The SDS was up 1.59 and the QID 2.58, but right at the opening the QID was 3 points higher and SDS nearly 5 points higher.
On the downside, loss leaders included DryShips (DRYS) down 2.63, Global Solutions (GSOL) 2.99, Pharmasset (VRUS) 2.52, and Chindex (CHDX) 1.45, with Energy Conversion Devices (ENER) off 1.49.
Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the significance of today's action was a strong gap down with the majority of indicators severely already oversold, creating an extreme which caused a strong technical snapback.
The indices managed to back and fill for several hours in a consolidative manner over the course of the session after the morning rally, but did manage to hold intraday support on several occasions, a key technical factor.
We'll see how tomorrow goes, but what we'd like to see is an upside resolution to this consolidation pattern, and a takeout of key overhead resistance at 1830 NDX and 1330 area on the S&P. Those are the levels we'll be watching tomorrow.
Harry Boxer is a technical consultant to many Wall Street hedge funds and large institutional traders, and author of TheTechTrader.com, a real-time diary of his day, swing and intermediate-term trades. For more of Harry Boxer, sign up for a free 15-day trial to his Real-Time Technical Trading Diary, or sign up for a free 30-day trial to his Top Charts of the Week service.
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