US Durable Goods Orders (JAN) (13:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
Expected: -4.0%
Previous: 5.2%

Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies Before House
Panel on Monetary Policy (15:00 GMT; 10:00 EST)

What Are The Markets Facing?

The dour sentiment on the US economy will not receive much of a boost on Wednesday, as durable goods orders for the month of January are expected to plunge 4.0 percent. A bulk of the decline will likely be led by transportation, as Boeing reported a slump in demand and orders amounted to a mere 65 planes – down from 287 in December. Meanwhile, traders will also be watching capital goods orders excluding defense and aircraft as a proxy for business investment. Though this component rebounded in December, the three month annualized rate of growth fell negative for the second consecutive period, suggesting that business sentiment is turning increasingly pessimistic. However, the market’s reaction to the news may not be prolonged, as the big event risk for the day will be Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony to the House Panel on monetary policy. There is little doubt that Bernanke will note the downside risks to growth as conditions in the housing sector remains in a freefall and the labor markets show signs of deterioration. Furthermore, he will likely need to address the stability of the financial markets, as the credit ratings of troubled bond-insurers Ambac and MBIA may still be at risk, despite Standard & Poor’s recent reaffirmation of their triple-A ratings. The million dollar question is: will Bernanke focus more on inflation risks? During the last FOMC meeting in which the bank cut the fed funds rate by 50bp to 3.00 percent, Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher dissented as he thought “monetary policy was already quite stimulative, while headline inflation was too high at more than 3 percent over the last year.” The minutes of the January meeting also showed that the FOMC will not hesitate to reverse their rate cuts once growth prospects stabilize. As a result, there is a chance that Bernanke could come off sounding a bit hawkish, on Wednesday, but he is more likely to remain focused on the downside risks to growth.

Bonds – 10-Year Treasury Note Futures

Treasuries are consolidating tightly between the 20 SMA at 116-16 and 50 SMA at 115-14. Unsurprisingly, upcoming US data will likely work in favor of a recovery in Treasuries, as durable goods orders are anticipated to plunge. On the other hand, if US stock markets rebound in the near-term, Treasuries could fall through near-term support to target 114-10. Bernanke will have the overriding say though, as his testimony to the House Panel will be watched for signs that the Fed remains dovish and will cut rates in March (bullish for Treasuries). However, if he focuses on inflation – suggesting the FOMC may leave rates unchanged – Treasuries may plummet.

FX – EUR/USD

On Wednesday, the US Census Bureau will report monthly durable goods orders for January, and the news may not be good for the US dollar as expectations call for a 4 percent decline. With the greenback trading near historic lows, the best that US policy makers could hope for is that the weak currency would be boon for US exports, especially manufactured goods. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will testify in front of the House Panel on monetary policy later in the morning. Traders will be anxiously awaiting his commentary in an attempt to gauge if the central bank remains extremely concerned about the downside risks to growth or if the FOMC will now turn their attention to persistent inflation pressures. There is a strong possibility that Bernanke will remain dovish, but with EUR/USD holding just below trendline resistance at 1.4886, dollar bearish news released prior to Wednesday could lead the pair to surge higher. As Technical Strategist Jamie Saettele noted in his Daily Technical Report, EUR/USD may ultimately be heading for 1.5119.

Equities – Dow Jones Industrial Average

US equity markets have been in a downward trend since October as deteriorating economic data leads fears of a recession to build. Upcoming news could weigh on stocks, as durable goods orders are anticipated to plunge, which does not bode well for the domestic economy. Furthermore, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s comments to the House Panel on monetary policy will be watched closely as they tend to be highly market moving. For the stock markets, investor reaction will depend more upon whether he sounds bearish on growth prospects or becomes a bit more optimistic that past policy actions have helped economic conditions to stabilize. Meanwhile, a daily chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average shows price consolidating within a pennant formation, leaving a breakout likely. A push above resistance at 12,675 may take on the 12,950/13,000 level, while a drop below 12,280 could move to take on the January 22 lows at 11,634.

Terri Belkas is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.