1. Japanese Small Business Confidence
2. German Retail Sales
3. Euro zone Gross Domestic Product
4. Swiss KOF Leading Indicator
5. Canadian Gross Domestic Product
6. U.S. Gross Domestic Product
7. U.S. Personal Consumption
8. U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers' Survey

Japanese Small Business Confidence (AUG) (05:00 GMT, 01:00 EDT)
Consensus: 49.0
Previous: 48.8

Outlook:  The small business confidence survey reading is expected to rise to 49.0 with a boost from the upcoming general elections.   Brightening shop owners' outlooks are Koizumi's list of promises to turn the economy around.  As the September 11th election day approaches, the polls have grown more and more in favor of Koizumi helming his Liberal Democratic Party through another session of parliamentary rule.  The potential economic benefits of another term of Koizumi as Prime Minster have already shown themselves with the recent rise in Japanese equities indices to fresh four-year highs.  This consensus may be difficult to match, however, as small business owners are met with greater threats to the economic future of the island nation.  Likely one of the largest concerns will be the recent jump in oil above $70 per barrel.  Crude prices were on steadily rising higher throughout the month of August, but the recent production bottleneck accompanying hurricane Katrina will produce ripples through the global community.  Another issue, which will likely weigh on confidence, will be the ultimatum Koizumi has given for the upcoming election.  If his Liberal Democratic party is unable to receive a majority vote, he will quit as prime minister.

Previous:  Small business confidence across all industries rose slightly to 48.8 from 48.4 in June.  Improved confidence for the second largest economy in the world came on the back of a progressively cheaper yen, boosting exports, and the promise of returning domestic demand.  Domestic consumption, which accounts for the majority of economic growth, accelerated for the month of July evidenced by continued strength in nationwide and Tokyo department store sales as well as a jump in household spending.  The export market was also favorable for Japanese businesses as the domestic currency tumbled against the dollar to a new 14-month low.  Keeping the reins on rampant optimism, however, was the return of oil prices, which just began to reestablish another leg of steady moves higher.

German Retail Sales (MoM)(JUL)(6:00GMT, 2:00EDT)
Consensus:  0.4%
Previous:  -0.3%

Outlook:  More than likely rebounding in the month of July, retail sales in Germany look to rise 0.4 percent compared to a decline of 0.3 in the previous month.  Once again luring shoppers out, stores offered discounts and cut prices in order to maintain consumer interest in light of waning confidence*with a fourth monthly decline in the GfK consumer survey.  Additionally, with tax cuts approved earlier, capital should be making its way into consumers' pockets in the form of excess disposable income.  Adding to the notion of an upside swing from the prior dip, German retail PMI figures were released higher earlier on in the month.  Increasing for the fifth consecutive month, the survey's reading rose to a 52.2 from 51.1, indicating a gain of sales.  All in all, consumer interest may still remain weak in light of unabated crude oil effects, adversely affecting the current turnaround that is expected in Germany.  Economists earlier predicted strong consumer would add substantively to the region's expansion.

Previous:  Retail sales in Europe's largest economy unexpectedly fell in the month of June, as higher oil prices and continual employment woes dampened consumer sentiment in light of previously positive expectations.  For the month, sales dipped 0.3 percent compared to consensus estimates of a 0.2 percent advance in the figure.  Although the recent depreciation in the euro has lent a helping hand to exporters, it has exacerbated the effect of dollar denominated oil prices, which reached as high as $62.10 a barrel in the month of July.  In response, Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder introduced tax cuts worth 6.5 billion euros in order to prop up domestic demand and increase spending by individuals*a crucial factor to the turn around in the region.  Despite recently positive economic data, many analysts hold reservations in predicting further economic recovery if there is no bounce in consumer spending.  However, current situations may garner speculation on near term interest rate considerations as higher energy costs can contribute to inflationary levels rising above the central bank's target benchmark.

Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (2Q1) (09:00 GMT, 05:00 EDT)
Consensus: 0.3%
Previous: 0.3%

Outlook: The Euro-Zone measure of economic growth is expected to remain unchanged from preliminary readings.  The initial report of 0.3 percent second quarter growth came on the back of surging corporate profits, which resulted in the largest rally in European stocks in seven years, but these profits were at the expense of European consumers.  Citizens of the dozen countries sharing the euro have been reluctant to put their dwindling earnings back into the economy as consumer confidence continues to drop.  Confidence produced new a new one-year low in both May and June as employment and payrolls continued to crimp consumer earnings.  Europe's unemployment rate hovered at a lofty 8.7 percent with correspondingly high jobless rates in both Germany and France, the two largest member economies.  Besides unemployment, wages have also played a major role in the shoring of domestic consumption.   European wages have declined in the past year with second quarter earnings down 0.3 percent. The effects on consumers have made their way to the business sector, which has experienced year-over-year declines in retail sales for the 14th consecutive month.  Many economists agree that the most effective way to curb the slowing growth in the European economy would come from restructuring labor market laws in member countries, but past attempts in both Germany and France have already been struck down with a forceful note from their citizens.  The International Monetary Fund has so far cut its growth forecasts for Europe from an initial 1.6 percent to 1.3 percent for 2005.

Previous:  Growth in the twelve countries sharing the euro slowed to 0.3 percent in the second quarter from 0.5 percent for the three months ending in March.  The preliminary reading on the main measure of economic growth was brought lower by slowdowns in member countries.  The overall community was encumbered by skyrocketing energy prices, which had negative effects on both consumer and producer's earnings.  Businesses however fared a little better as the euro made a precipitous drop against the U.S. dollar through the quarter and encouraged growth in exports to major trading partners.  Member countries, on the other hand, have not fared as well.  Both France and Germany have sustained near-record high unemployment rates, with a subsequent steep drop in consumer demand.

Swiss KOF Leading Indicator (AUG)(09:30 GMT, 05:30 EDT)
Consensus: 0.58
Previous: 0.57

Outlook: The KOF leading indicator looks to inch higher, reflecting improved growth prospects for the Swiss economy. The index, which is comprised of six weighted economic indices, is predicted to push to 0.58*its highest value since December 2004. Recent gains in national industrial production are said to improve overall growth prospects.  Helping international sales, the U.S. dollar's 12 percent year-to-date gain against the Swiss franc has boosted export competitiveness and fueled gains in national manufacturing production. Likewise significant, recent economic recovery in the Euro-zone will likely further boost Swiss exports, as the currency bloc is the nation's largest trading partner. The overall outlook on Swiss economic growth remains fairly positive, but sky-high oil prices could potentially crimp domestic and international demand*lending caution to current positive expectations.

Previous: The Swiss KOF leading indicator beat all expectations in July, rising to 0.57 from a revised 0.55 in June. Its gain was the largest seen in over a year, as improving exports boosted expansion in the national economy. Low interests rates are likewise said to advance spending and investment, as the National Bank of Switzerland keeps benchmark rates at a mere 0.75 percent. Moving forward, economists expect export growth to persist*likewise driving economic expansion.

Canadian Gross Domestic Product (MoM)(June)(12:30 GMT, 08:30 EDT)
Consensus: 0.4%
Previous: 0.3%

Outlook: Analysts predict that Canadian GDP grew at an increased rate in June, as consumers and producers alike have increased spending to take advantage of interest rates near 40-year lows. Economic releases for the month all show healthy growth in the world's seventh largest economy. Of note, both manufacturing shipments and the international merchandise trade surplus beat expectations. Rising 0.5 percent in the month, manufacturing shipments saw the trade surplus gain to C$5.1 billion. Likewise significant, Canadian retail sales gained a healthy 1.1 percent in June and showed healthy domestic growth potential. Finally, record-high energy prices were likely to push energy sales significantly higher on the month, boosting capital levels in the national economy.  Overall, recent signs point to increased economic growth on the month, pushing annualized second quarter expansion to a predicted 2.7 percent.

Previous: The Canadian economy grew more than expected in May, with the headline monthly figure registering at 0.3 percent. Analysts had called for a smaller 0.1 percent increase, as broad measures of export growth had largely declined. Despite falling indicators in other sectors, energy sales, which account for 5.7 percent of the nation's output, grew 1.3 percent on the month. Likewise significant, manufacturing output, which accounts for 17 percent of the economy, gained a smaller 0.2 percent. Such increased expansion in the face of lower growth prospects certainly improved outlook on the Canadian economy. As a result, many traders pushed the national currency higher against its U.S. counterpart.

US Annualized GDP (2Q P) (12:30 GMT, 8:30 EDT)
Consensus: 3.4%
Previous: 3.4%

Outlook: Economists predict no revisions in flash estimates for U.S. second quarter GDP growth. The initial numbers came in slightly below expectations of 3.5 percent with a 3.4 percent change. The Bureau of Economic Analysis makes several assumptions when making the initial estimate due to lack of data. So far, what we are seeing is that private residential construction was slightly higher than previously thought. Also, there seems to have been a greater buildup of non-durable stockpiles than the original assumption indicated. There were also upward revisions in state and local construction data which is added to government spending. However, the trade balance deteriorated in June and may reduce the positive impact of net exports on second quarter GDP. All in all, this would leave the GDP estimate fairly unchanged despite some alterations in the components. Although the economy is no longer charging ahead as it did in the recent past, this rate of growth is still supportive of the Fed's view that the economy is on "firm footing". At this rate, growth should not become the main concern for monetary authorities and a measured pace of tightening should continue.

Previous: The previously published first estimate for second quarter US GDP put growth at 3.4%, lower than the median economists' forecast of 3.5% and down from 3.8% in first quarter. A huge factor in this decline was the inventory slowdown we saw in the same period. In recent times, we saw a buildup in stockpiles as businesses feared rising costs. Now, companies are using up existing inventories, pushing new industrial orders lower. Ignoring this portion of the report, however, U.S. economic performance looked strong. Personal consumption declined slightly, but business investment expanded, which is a bullish sign for growth in the months to come. Lastly, net exports made its first positive contribution to GDP since the third quarter of 2003, while government consumption accelerated slightly.

US Personal Consumption (2Q P) (12:30 GMT, 8:30 EDT)
Consensus: 3.4%
Previous: 3.3%

Outlook: Economists predict that personal consumption growth will be revised up to 3.4 percent from the previously released 3.3 percent figure. Such an increase seems fairly likely, as retail sales posted significant gains in the same period. Annualized quarterly growth in total retail and food sales was 10.6% in the second quarter versus 6.0% in the first quarter. Also, durable goods orders remained strong through June with the surge in May. Many economists had expected a durable goods correction to appear in June, but this didn't happen until July, when it finally posted a monthly drop of 4.9%. With unemployment falling to four-year lows in the second quarter and June seeing a three-year high in consumer confidence, it is quite likely that personal consumption was indeed better than first estimated.

Previous: The initial estimates for second quarter personal consumption showed that consumers slowed their previous spending growth rate, moving to 3.3 percent from 3.6 percent in the first quarter. This measure has been decelerating ever since the third quarter of 2004. Spending on durable goods actually made a recovery more recently after dipping in the beginning of the year. However, this was offset by the drop in the growth rate of non-durable goods from 5.3 percent to a more moderate 3.3 percent. The press release also indicated that growth in spending on energy slowed, probably due to reduced usage as consumers no longer required oil to heat their homes in the spring months. Despite this slowdown, keep in mind that the average annual rate of growth for personal consumption between 2001 and 2004 was only 3.0%.

Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (AUG)(14:00 GMT, 10:00 EDT)
Consensus: 61.0
Previous: 63.5

Outlook: The Chicago purchasing managers' index looks to retrace part of last month's 10 point gain*the largest jump since 1983. July's torrid growth came primarily from growing orders for Chicago based Boeing Corporation. We now know, however, that airplanes orders subsequently saw substantial declines in the month's durable goods report. If this trend continues into August, the survey reading could very well drop. Despite the expected decline, however, a reading of 61.0 would still prove bullish for the state of manufacturing, as it would show optimism in purchasing managers' outlook for the future sector growth. On the flipside, a word of caution is necessary, as record-high energy prices could have very well crimped manufacturers' profit margins and output growth.

Previous: The Chicago PMI reading made its largest advance since 1983, jumping 10 points to a three-month high. The report underscored overall recovery in U.S. manufacturing and improved outlook for the industry. New orders skyrocketed from 56.5 in June to 69.6, led by orders for automobiles and airplanes. The two largest U.S. automakers, GM and Ford, offered national consumers employee discounts on new autos, increasing demand and boosting production. The world's second largest airplane manufacturer, Boeing Corp, likewise saw an increase in demand from foreign buyers. Such strong growth is likely to retrace slightly, but the outlook for American manufacturing remains fairly optimistic. U.S. industry has thus far withstood higher oil prices, and many feel that the sector will be able to withstand higher prices if domestic demand continues its strength.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.