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US Dollar Consolidates Losses as Q4 GDP Meets Expectations
By Antonio Sousa | Published  03/27/2008 | Currency | Unrated
US Dollar Consolidates Losses as Q4 GDP Meets Expectations

The US dollar picked up very slightly against most of the major currencies as Q4 GDP figures were finalized in line with expectations and personal consumption was revised higher. The greenback pick up its biggest gains against the Swiss Franc and Yen as investors moved into higher yielding assets. Against its European counterparts, the US dollar saw choppy price action against the euro and the British pound, but ended the day little changed. Conversely, the US dollar fell against the Canadian and Australian dollar as risk appetites increased, but remained relatively flat against the New Zealand dollar as the pair held near 0.8030.

Fresh economic data brightened the dark outlook for the US with mounting downward pressures easing as government officials addressed many of the downside risks to the economy – raising speculation that the government is looking to increase their oversight of Wall Street. Finalized fourth quarter GDP eased growth concerns as it held at 0.6 percent annualized, but did little to improve the growth outlook as it rose at its slowest pace since 2002. Personal Consumption also helping to push the US dollar higher as it unexpectedly rose to 2.3 percent from 1.9 percent. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditure on the other hand fell to 2.5 percent from 2.7 percent, raising speculation that the rise in consumption is contributed to the increase in food and oil prices. Unemployment showed to be improving as Initial Jobless Claims fell to 366K from 378K, paired with a fall in Continuing Claims as the number of claimants fell to 2845K from 2865K. Amid the decline in the headline figures, many are holding to the belief that this merely reflects a decline in the labor force as the Help Wanted Index dropped to 21 from 22.

Increased volatility shook the stock markets as the morning gains were short lived and were dragging down as Oracle and Google posted weaker than expected profits. As a result, the DJIA ended the day 120.40 points lower to hold at 12,302.46, with IBM and Boeing taking the biggest loss out of the big 30. Among the broader indices, the S&P500 shaved 15.37 points to hold off at 1,325.76, with Retail Ventures and DSW posting the biggest declines.

Demands for US Treasury fell as investors jumped into higher yielding assets, and pushed bond prices lower. As a result, the benchmark 10-Year yield rose to 3.52 percent from 3.46 percent, with the 2-Year yield following as it increased to 1.69 percent from 1.63 percent.

Looking ahead, more consumer data will kick off the morning at 12:30 GMT, with the Personal Consumption and Spending index adding to the downward pressures for the US dollar as both indices are expected to decline. The last release for the week will be the U. of Michigan Confidence index which is due out at 14:00 GMT, and will also add to the US dollar pessimism as consumer confidence is expected to fall further to 70.0 from 70.5.

Antonio Sousa is a Currency Analyst for FXCM.