Mound Weekly Futures and Commodities Review |
By James Mound |
Published
03/31/2008
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Futures
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Unrated
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Mound Weekly Futures and Commodities Review
Energies Volatility spikes in crude oil are all over the map lately as the market tops at $110 but rebounds as last week's inventory report offered a bull shocker. A one day $10 crude oil plunge is right around the corner so play long term deep OTM straight puts. Natural gas is offering some support as we amp for hurricane season and a short term put play here is recommended.
Financials The stock market remains choppy but is a solid short as it tests a resistance bad between 1350 and 1380. Target a retest of the lows by Memorial Day. Bonds are still stuck in a range and are a great premium collection opportunity as it holds between 125 and 112. The dollar is getting volatile as it tries to hold the lows, a price expansion indicator with some key turning point signs pointing to a major trend reversal. Get long the dollar by buying euro currency and Canadian dollar puts. The yen is exposed to a carry trade support despite this export based country's need for a dilution in their currency, so I would avoid this market until the Fed stops cutting rates.
Grains The grains are a blank slate heading into the monster prospective plantings report due out Monday morning. The market is susceptible to a massive selloff regardless of the report's data as reports like this one often act a catalyst for a trend reversal. We all know the grain sector is exposed to high demand and no carryover inventory. We all know that any issues in this year's planting, growing and harvest seasons could devastate the global supply picture. But that's just it.we all know. Prices are at or near all time highs in all the grains. The premium is already in their. Get this report out the way and what will the market have to support prices? The selloff from the other week is a good indication of not only how easily this market can turn, but also how volatile it will be when it does. If the market rallies on the report then jump on some long term puts and watch the volatility spike when the sector turns.
Meats Cattle broke key nearby support and is a sell along with the grains, however it is testing a longer term support that would need a break below 85.60 to give confirmation. Buy puts if we see a Monday bounce. Hogs are range bound and not a market worthy of a play.
Metals Gold and silver's volatility from the top was reminiscent of when gold broke 430 resistance only to immediately reverse (proportionately speaking). Now that event ultimately gave gold bugs and investors a great entry point to a much longer term sustained rally, while this recent top is likely setting up a longer term trend reversal in a market sector that has had one of the biggest 6 month bull runs in history. This sector appears more exposed to a crash than any other sector.
Softs Coffee appears to be establishing a value support following it's more than 20% retracement from the recent highs. I am cautious but see some long strangle or call buying opportunities here as the market breaches critical weekly trend line support but holds the longer term monthly support. I could see coffee testing 120 but just as easily testing the highs at 170 - sounds like the risk-reward to play the rally is well worth it to me.
Cocoa is congesting into a pennant after setting its top just under 3000. Short bounces. OJ is ugly on a chart but an excellent value buy here for a long term play through hurricane season. Cotton is choppy and avoidable until the smoke clears from the USDA report. Sugar remains choppy after retracing from a strong price surge - not worth the premium for option plays and not worth the risk to sell premium either.
James Mound is the head analyst for www.MoundReport.com, and author of the commodity book 7 Secrets. For a free email subscription to James Mound's Weekend Commodities Review and Trade of the Month, click here.
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