7 Answers to Trader Questions |
By Price Headley |
Published
04/23/2008
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Stocks
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Unrated
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7 Answers to Trader Questions
It seems like I have about 9000 things to talk about today. Clearly, I won't be able to get to tall of them. So, I've narrowed down the potential topics to the top ten questions it seems most everyone is asking right now.
Q. Was last week's rebound a sign of better days ahead?
A. I don't believe so -- not yet anyway. We're still in a bearish phase, even if we see these pockets of strength.Tuesday reaffirmed something I've seen for a while -- no follow through. With some lingering gaps, I see more down before I expect some up.
Q. Wasn't GE's news a sign that things are really bad for the economy?
A. I don't think so. I think GE's (GE) bad news was just a sign that Jack Welch isn't there anymore. GE tried to blame their finance/lending arm for the trouble, but look closer at the filing, four of the six divisions went backwards in terms of income. They would have lost ground even without the lending division's problems.
Though not diametrical direct competitors, Honeywell (HON), United Technologies (UTX), and Caterpillar (CAT) all did just fine. So no, I think GE's problems aren't a sign of bigger things this time around.
Q. Since bullishness all seems to hinge on housing, when do you see the housing market recovering?
A. That's too speculative for me to even venture a guess. Anybody who thinks they have a grasp on the timing of it scares me a little. I don't believe the true bottom is foreseeable. I do believe most people will be wrong about the bottom though. That said, if homebuilder stocks are leading indicators of the housing market's recovery, the Dow Jones Homebuilder's Index chart has me curious. We've seen short-term upswings before though, so, don't get too excited yet.
Dow Jones Homebuilder's Index - Weekly
Q. Finding a short/bearish opportunity isn't too hard right now. Anything going higher on a semi-consistent basis?
A. Consistently? Nothing that I can see. If you can stomach some volatility and risk, there may be a few things out there. You're going against the grain though. Basic materials and energy are the two that come to mind.
Q. OK, any undervalued surprises out there?
A. Again, everything's a risk right now, so don't take anything to heart. For some reason though, I find myself attracted to wireless stocks, and defense (as in guns, not butter). Also, and I can't even believe I'm saying this publicly, auto and auto part makers are on my radar again.
Industries on the Rebound?
Q. Are we in a recession or not?
A. I believe we are. I also believe it doesn't really matter -- despite what the media wants you to think. Don't look for any government official (that matters anyway) to tell you the same. They all want to dance around it. I think the recession will be over by the time they admit it. The National Bureau of Economic Research makes the official call, but they're typically months behind on an official decision.
As such, I would discourage you from making investment decisions based on economic data. The correlation is poor at best. We seem to see stocks perk up before the economic recovery begins. While you're waiting, just keep focusing on the trading opportunities you see.
Q. Yahoo (YHOO) versus Microsoft (MSFT): Who wins the standoff?
A. Microsoft. Take out the one-time gain from Alibaba.com, and their results were mediocre. It's hard to convince anyone your stock's worth more if you can't prove it in perpetuity.
A couple of the arguments voiced by Yahoo's top people tells me they know they have no real ammunition here...
-- Jerry Yang said "Our ability to execute on multiple fronts is clearly improving." -- Sue Decker (president) recently said "We feel we are on the verge of fundamentally changing the game."
Ummm, guys? You just outsourced a major piece of the revenue machine to Google. And, you just turned in mediocre numbers. You've been around for years - what are you going to change in the next two years that you couldn't have changed in the last ten?
Price Headley is the founder and chief analyst of BigTrends.com.
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