• Japanese Consumer Confidence
• UK Industrial and Manufacturing Production 
• US ISM Non-Manufacturing

Japanese Consumer Confidence (JUL) (05:00 GMT, 01:00 EST)
Consensus: 48.2
Previous: 46.8

Outlook:  Consumer confidence is expected to have risen to 48.2 from 46.8 in July, but the sub-50 reading leaves pessimists outnumbering those that are confident that Japan will be able to sustain its rise out of recession that has gripped the nation on and off since 1991.  Expectations for a rise in confidence from the month before will find support from the rise in wages over the same period.  Earnings rose 1.7 percent year-over-year in July, the largest annual increase since November of last year.  The increase in earnings may be the only reason for confidence to pick up for the period however, as the remaining indicators tying into optimism have taken a shift downwards.  A combination of weak confidence from the period before and the jobless rate rising back to 4.4 percent kept consumers from going to the store, evident in the 3.3 percent decline in household spending.  The reduction in spending was compounded by the 0.2 percent rise in consumer prices, that producers have passed on as oil prices depress profits.  A lack in willingness to turn households' yen back into the economy has already made its impression on retail sales and department sales, which dropped 2.2 and 1.1 percent respectively.

Previous:  Confidence fell in June to 46.8, the lowest level since December suggesting that consumer spending, which has been integral in pulling the country out of recession, may cool.   The contraction in confidence seemed to be out of place with the unemployment rate dropping to a record low 4.2 percent and earnings rising 1.5 percent, but other factors weighed on consumers decision to hold onto their wages.  Leading the dip in optimism for the second largest economy in the world were increased worries that the government may increase income taxes to curb debt.  Japan holds the largest public debt in the world.  Consumers took the news to heart as overall household spending fell 1.2 percent from June.

UK Industrial Production (MoM) (JUL) (8:30 GMT, 4:30AM EDT)
Consensus: 0.1%
Previous:  0.0%

Outlook: After achieving a higher-than-expected growth rate in June, factory production is expected to have remained unchanged in July while industrial production edged up by 0.1%. The CIPS/NTC manufacturing PMI figure for July was 49.5, which indicates that the sector is contracting since the figure is below 50. The Confederation of British Industry's industrial trends survey for July was equally disheartening. Despite a higher level of export orders, which came as the pound sat at 19-month lows against the dollar, total orders still remained weak. To make matters worse, the CBI's August survey produced an even weaker number.  The balance on total order books of -29 is the lowest reading in almost two years, signaling that a robust recovery for production is not in the works yet. Tomorrow's number will also surely influence the interest rate landscape. With industry groups still quite vocal in their requests for another rate cut, an unexpectedly weak figure may force the Bank of England into giving in.

Previous: In June, UK manufacturing grew at a faster-than-expected pace of 0.2% from May's level while overall production remained basically unchanged. It seems that after falling into recessionary conditions in the first quarter, UK industry is finally stabilizing as consumer spending perks up, as shown by the 1.3% jump in retail sales in June. The precipitous fall in the pound's value probably also helped manufacturers in terms of export orders. The unexpected 0.2% figure was also helped along by a rather anomalous 1.5% monthly increase in food production, which is the biggest jump since record-keeping began in 1968. Although this report led many to believe that no further rate cuts would be made by the Bank of England, this is still rather presumptuous. Despite the recently higher numbers, manufacturing production is still down 1% from a year earlier while overall industrial production is 1.9% lower than June of 2004.

US ISM Non-Manufacturing (AUG) (14:00 GMT, 10:00AM EDT)
Consensus: 60.0
Previous: 60.5

Outlook: August will probably bring another slowdown in the US non-manufacturing sectors. Economists are expecting the ISM's business activity index to fall slightly to 60.0 from 60.5. Looking at last Friday's nonfarm payrolls data for the month, which is typically released after this report,     we can already see that the employment component should've remained strong. The non-manufacturing industries, which are services and construction, added a total of 181,000 jobs in August, much higher than last month's revised net change of 147,000. However, the unexpected fall that was seen in the manufacturing index certainly points to a possible downside surprise in tomorrow's number. Just looking at the retail sector, we already see that August was probably a weaker month after two very strong sales growth numbers in June and July. Although a larger-than-forecast fall is possible, the final number will probably still be fairly strong.

Previous: In July, the ISM non-manufacturing business activity index receded from a three month high of 62.2 to a lower-than-expected 60.5. Both the production and employment component indexes fell slightly but stayed about the expansionary threshold of 50. The sectors were a lot harder hit by oil prices in July as seen by the price component index soaring by 10.5 points to 70.3, the highest level since December. On a more positive note, the index for new orders rose by 2.4 to 61.9, the biggest increase in a year and a half. Order backlogs also grew at a faster pace in July with a 1-point increase in the index to 53.5. This healthy outlook for orders will ensure that production stays elevated for the next few months or so. The report, although bringing a disappointment in the headline number, was fairly strong and showed the economy's resilience despite high oil costs.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.