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Indices Follow Through To The Downside
By Harry Boxer | Published  05/20/2008 | Stocks | Unrated
Indices Follow Through To The Downside

The markets followed through on yesterday's late decline, opening lower and moving down rather quickly in the morning. They did bounce mid-morning, came back to initial overhead resistance, failed right there, and then backed off and retested, with the S&P making new lows for the pullback. At that point, the Nasdaq 100 only nominally confirmed, and then they turned it around and rallied back late in the session to get the NDX back towards the mid day resistance levels. The S&P had a much more difficult time, and despite the NDX traveling in a lateral trading range for most of the session after the initial decline, the S&P continued to make lower lows until late in the session when they double-bottomed and bounced.

Net on the day it was a negative session across the board for the indices, with Dow down just under 200 points, the S&P 500 down 13.21 and the Nasdaq 100 down nearly 16, pulling back to 2000. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX)had a tough day, down nearly 3 percent, down 11.71, leading the NDX lower today.

The technicals confirmed the decline with a nearly 2 to 1 negative ratio of decliners over advancers on New York and a little worse than 3 to 2 on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was 8 to 3 negative on New York with lighter total volume of 1.2 billion. Nasdaq traded under 2 billion today and had about a 14 to 5 negative ratio of declining volume over advancing volume.

TheTechTrader.com board was very mixed with some large gainers and losers. On the plus side, several junior oil stocks had huge gains, with Mexco Energy (MXC), exploding for another 14.63, closing at 42.53. That stock is now up several hundred percent just in the last couple weeks.

Other energy stocks of note, Pyramid Oil (PDO) jumped another 4.70 to close at 23 today. Portfolio position Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) closed at 11.39 ,up 92 cents on 1 million shares, and low-priced Omni Energy (OMNI) at 5.92 was up 1.19 on 1 3/4 million shares.

Recent Chart of the Week Brigham Exploration (BEXP) jumped to 13, up 1.27. It was a very strong day for many low-priced junior oil stocks today with the price of oil nearing $130 a barrel.

In the shipping sector, we had a mixed picture. DryShips (DRYS) got hammered for 5.75, but Excel Maritime (EXM) was up 1.32 and 4 points off its earlier low, coming back late in the afternoon. TBS International (TBSI), however, was also down, but only 96 cents today.

Other stocks of note, former Chart of the Week Exide (XIDE) reached near 16, closing at 15.88, up 89 cents to a new 3-year high. Pacific Ethanol (PEIX), our Chart of the Day yesterday, exploded in the morning, went all the way up to 6.86, at which point it was up more than 1.50. However, it gave back a dollar late in the day, and closed up 51 cents at 5.65 on 21 1/4 million shares.

Canadian Solar (CSIQ) up 2.04 to 44.12, was one of the leading solar stocks on my board today in a mixed group.

On the downside, AgFeed Industries (FEED) gave back 1.10, closing at 15.99, and Broadcom (BRCM) lost 1.55 to close at 26.23.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices did follow through to the downside today before bouncing near key support at the 4-week rising trendline. However, the bounce late in the day looked corrective to me, and until they actually break out to the upside the odds are this move will continue to extend itself to the downside. But we'll wait to see if the rising channels of the last 4 weeks are violated.

Harry Boxer is a technical consultant to many Wall Street hedge funds and large institutional traders, and author of TheTechTrader.com, a real-time diary of his day, swing and intermediate-term trades. For more of Harry Boxer, sign up for a free 15-day trial to his Real-Time Technical Trading Diary, or sign up for a free 30-day trial to his Top Charts of the Week service.