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Oil Prices Drop, Stocks Advance
By Harry Boxer | Published  05/27/2008 | Stocks | Unrated
Oil Prices Drop, Stocks Advance

The market had a strong session, starting the week off with positive gains. A lot of it, in my opinion, had to do with the fact that oil was very weak today, dropping $4 1/2 a barrel.

The day started out with a gap up. They ran sharply in the morning, particularly on the Nasdaq 100. The S&P 500 didn't quite have the thrust we saw on the NDX, and the market then backed off sharply but held the lows of the morning on the Nasdaq 100 and Friday's lows on the S&P. When they couldn't make any further downside progress, they turned around and rallied in a slow but steady pace, getting to the session highs at 1995 on the Nasdaq and 1387 on the S&P 500 before backing off near the close.

But right in the last few minutes they came on again and closed near the session high on the Nasdaq 100.

Net on the day the Dow was up nearly 69, the S&P 500 up about 9 1/2 and the Nasdaq 100 up 36 1/2. As you can see, it was a much stronger session there today. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) was up 6.80, or a little more than 1 1/2 percent.

The technicals were positive by less than 2 to 1 on advance-declines on New York and about 2 to 1 on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was narrower, positive by 6 to 5 on New York, on lighter volume of only 1.1 billion traded. Nasdaq was a lot better, trading at nearly 4 to 1 positive on total volume of about 1 3/4 billion.

TheTechTrader.com board, as a result, was very mixed, with point-plus gainers and losers across the board. By far the best gainer was China Finance Online (JRJC), up 3.35 in front of its earnings coming out on Thursday. The gain came on 1.8 million shares, strong volume.

The shippers were mixed, but Excel Maritime (EXM) came on late in the session and jumped from 45.80 to 49.62, gaining 1.76 on the day, closing not far off the session high. On the other hand, TBS International (TBSI) was down 1.21 and DryShips (DRYS) down 3.02, so a mixed picture there.

Solar energy stocks were up at the opening, down in the morning and then back up in the afternoon. Canadian Solar (CSIQ) bounced from 36.21 to 40.57 before backing off to around 39, to close up 52 cents on the day.

Solarfun (SOLF) managed to come back off the lows but was still down 7 cents, and JA Solar (JASO) was an underperformer today, down 1.27.

Other gainers of note, Eschelon Corp. (ELON) gained 1.29 on news of a potential big new contract.

Fractional gainers include Exide Technologies (XIDE) up 65 cents, SIMO 42 cents, WM up 34 cents, MELA 75 cents, and AgFeed Industries (FEED) 81 cents, coming way off its lows by nearly 2 points.

Portfolio position Ceragon Networks (CRNT) jumped 52 cents to 9.92. Chart of the Week ATVI was up 55 cents, and portfolio position DUG gained 30 cents today.

Other losses of note, junior oils MXC fell 3.04 and PDO down 2.42. Sigma Designs (SIGM) gave back 1.40.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices did well to move up through initial resistance today. But the overall patterns, particularly on the Nasdaq 100, appear to be large head and shoulder tops forming with key support now at the 1945-50 zone and resistance around the 2000 area, just about 5 points beneath today's high. Let's see if the indices can extend and break this pattern, or roll over and confirm a break of the pattern by moving down and taking out the neckline. The S&P is lagging, another indicator that a top may be forming.

Harry Boxer is a technical consultant to many Wall Street hedge funds and large institutional traders, and author of TheTechTrader.com, a real-time diary of his day, swing and intermediate-term trades. For more of Harry Boxer, sign up for a free 15-day trial to his Real-Time Technical Trading Diary, or sign up for a free 30-day trial to his Top Charts of the Week service.