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Definitive Down-Session Commands Caution
By Harry Boxer | Published  06/2/2008 | Stocks | Unrated
Definitive Down-Session Commands Caution

The market started the week with a definitive down day. They opened lower and went sharply lower, stair-stepping their way down until mid-day at which point they finally found some support at around 1990 NDX and 1378 SPX. They bounced in mid-afternoon, pulled back and retested and made higher lows, then rallied in a sharp move into the close, snapping back to take back a portion of the losses.

Net on the day the Dow was still down 134 1/2, the S&P 500 14.70, and the Nasdaq 100 25 3/4. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) was down nearly 6, or 1 1/2 percent.

The technicals confirmed the down day with a little more than 2 to 1 decliners over advancers on both exchanges. Up/down volume was even worse, negative by 3 1/2 to 1 on New York on a light 1.14 billion. Nasdaq traded more than 1.9 billion, and had a 3 1/2 to 1 negative ratio.

TheTechTrader.com board was very mixed, but had some surprisingly strong gainers, Leading the way were some of the junior oils, with Mexco Energy (MXC) having a monster session again, nearly reaching 40 in a nearly 10-point range today. It closed up 7.69 on the day. Pyramid Oil (PDO) also snapped back 2.03, as did GeoResources (GEOI) up 1.98, and Brigham Exploration (BEXP) announced an oil find and jumped to a new all-time high over 18 at one point, closing at 16.70, up 2.13 on very heavy volume for this stock of nearly 5 million shares traded.

Positive drug news spurred Acordia Pharmaceuticals (ACOR), closing at 28.30, up 6.74 on nearly 14 million. And AVANT Immunotherapeutics (AVAN) at 18 was up 4 on 7 1/2 million shares.

Canadian Solar (CSIQ), our Chart of the Week, was up 1.32, but Solarfun (SOLF) dropped 71 cents in a mixed solar energy sector. JA Solar (JASO) was down 44 cents, but China Sunergy (CSUN) gained 29 cents.

Shippers had a mixed session, with DryShips (DRYS) down 1.94, but Excel Maritime (EXM) was up 1.39 and TBS International (TBSI) up 1.62.

On the downside, Energy Conversion Devices (ENER) gave back 3 today.China Natural Resources (CHNR) lost 1.23, Chindex (CHDX) 1.10, and China Finance Online (JRJC) 56 cents in a soft Chinese sector.

Former Chart of the Week Exide Technologies (XIDE) reached new multi-year highs, closing at 17.10 up 61 cents.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices got slammed in the morning, stabilized mid-day, and then came on in the last hour to take back a chunk of the losses, but still started out the week with a definitive down day which broke the 6-day uptrends.

Unfortunately, we have what looks like a potential double-top on the Nasdaq 100 and head-and-shoulders top on the S&P 500 developing over the last 3-4 weeks, so we remain extremely cautious here.

Harry Boxer is a technical consultant to many Wall Street hedge funds and large institutional traders, and author of TheTechTrader.com, a real-time diary of his day, swing and intermediate-term trades. For more of Harry Boxer, sign up for a free 15-day trial to his Real-Time Technical Trading Diary, or sign up for a free 30-day trial to his Top Charts of the Week service.