Indices Snap Back From Oversold Condition |
By Harry Boxer |
Published
06/9/2008
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Stocks
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Unrated
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Indices Snap Back From Oversold Condition
We had a definitive down day until the last hour or so when the indices snapped back from a short term oversold condition. After successfully retesting the mid-afternoon lows and failing to go any lower, they started snapping back, and in what looked like late short covering, getting them back to the best levels of the afternoon.
The day started out with a surge lower, especially on the NDX. A sharp snapback failed to get back over resistance. They then backed and filled until mid-day when they rolled over hard and fell to new pullback lows, reaching right near the key multi-week lows on the Nasdaq 100 near the 1944-46 zone, reaching near 1948 before bouncing. The S&P 500,which had already broken key support, around 1370, continued lower this morning, getting down to 1350 and change, before the late snapback brought them back to 1362.
Net on the day the S&P 500 managed to get back into the plus column, up 1 point, as did the Dow, up 70 1/2. The Nasdaq 100 was still down 10.68, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) off 3.39.
So, a mixed session at the close today.
The technicals were decidedly negative by about 2 to 1 on advance-declines on New York and on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was more than 2 to 1 negative on Nasdaq, but a little less than 2 to 1 negative on New York. NYSE total volume was just under 1 1/3 billion. Nasdaq traded just over 2 billion.
TheTechTrader.com board was mostly negative today, with many point-plus losers. Starting the day off on a big drop in the price in crude today, the USO dropped 2.97. Junior oils suffered as a result, with Mexco Energy (MXC) down 2.95, Pyramid Oil (PDO) down 2.77.
Solar energy stocks also took it on the chin today, with Canadian Solar (CSIQ) down 2.14, Solarfun (SOLF) 2.05, and JA Solar (JASO) down 1.25.
Shippers also got hit , with DryShips (DRYS) down 1.66, Excel Maritime (EXM) 94 cents, and TBS International (TBSI) 1.48. Although they all closed well off their lows.
Chinese stocks also got hit, with China Finance Online (JRJC) down 2.21, China Natural Resources (CHNR) off 62 cents, and Chindex (CHDX) 1.53.
On the plus side, Energy Conversion Devices (ENER) was the lone point-plus gainer, up 1.19, continuing its terrific relative strength. Chart of the Week China Architectural (RCH) was up 65 cents to 10.75, showing excellent relative strength as well. Sequenom (SQNM), also a Chart of the Week, jumped 96 cents today, and closed at 12.83 on 3.7 million to a new multi-year high.
GeoResources (GEOI) snapped back 90 cents after a big hit on Friday due to an announcement on a financing.
Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices made lower lows, the NDX pressing key support before rallying late in the session. The S&P 500 went along for the ride, but still managed to close mixed on the day.
We'll see if today's late snapback is anything more than technical, which I suspect it may be.
Harry Boxer is a technical consultant to many Wall Street hedge funds and large institutional traders, and author of TheTechTrader.com, a real-time diary of his day, swing and intermediate-term trades. For more of Harry Boxer, sign up for a free 15-day trial to his Real-Time Technical Trading Diary, or sign up for a free 30-day trial to his Top Charts of the Week service.
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