Today we got a definitive and decisive down day. With very negative pre-market futures, the indices gapped sharply lower and stair-stepped their way down sharply all morning, bounced around mid-day but were unable to make any higher highs at all or even get over their intraday declining moving averages on the 5-minute charts.
Today we got a definitive and decisive down day. With very negative pre-market futures, the indices gapped sharply lower and stair-stepped their way down sharply all morning, bounced around mid-day but were unable to make any higher highs at all or even get over their intraday declining moving averages on the 5-minute charts.
The indices continued moving lower until they closed at the lows for the day going away, with the Dow down 358 and change, under 11,500. The S&P 500 at 1283 and change was down nearly 39. The Nasdaq 100 at 1855 and change fell nearly 78 1/2, a huge loss there. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) was down 17.44, more than 4 percent.
The technicals were extremely negative, with advance-declines 5 1/2 to 1 negative on New York and about 4 to 1 negative on Nasdaq. Up/down volume, however, was the story, with NYSE trading more than a 11 to 1 negative ratio of declining volume over advancing volume, and total volume moving up a little bit to more than 1.5 billon. Nasdaq traded more than 2.3 billion and had a little more than 8 to 1 negative ratio of declining over advancing volume.
As a result TheTechTrader.com board was chiefly down, but there were several outstanding gainers, most of them in the short instruments or oil related. The USO gained 4.57 to 113.07. The SDS was up 3.55, QID 2.73 and the DUG up 52 cents.
Despite the sharp rise in oil, many of the oil stocks we follow were either up small amounts and way off their highs, or down on the day. For example, Pyramid Oil (PDO), which ran as high as 38.56, closed at 34.10, down 84 cents, a complete reversal into negative territory. Mexco Energy (MXC) similarly dropped from 49 to 40, before bouncing to 41.80, but closed down 2.70 on the day. GeoResources (GEOI) managed to gain 1.08, as did Royale Energy (ROYL), which gained 75 cents to 12.75.
A couple Chinese stocks stood out today, with China Architectural (CAEI) at 9.59 up 80 cents, and Advanced Battery (ABAT) at 5.74 up 61 cents to a new six-month high.
On the downside, the QQQQs lost 1.92, Canadian Solar (CSIQ) down 2.35, A-Power Energy (APWR) 1.81, Energy Conversion Devices (ENER) 1.84, JA Solar (JASO) 1.32, and Solarfun (SOLF) 1.03 in a weak solar energy sector.
Shippers were mixed, with DryShips (DRYS) up 89 cents, but Excel Maritime (EXM) lost 1.03 and TBS International (TBSI) lost 1.04. Zoltek Companies (ZOLT) also lost 2.18 today, and Exide Technologies (XIDE) 1.09.
Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices opened sharply lower and went down all day in orderly channels and closed at the lows for the day going away, taking out key support levels on the various indices. We're now extremely oversold short-term and right at an important cycle low in this timeframe.
I'd expect a snapback rally to occur, but it could come from lower levels and sharply so if the downside pressure is not arrested shortly. Oil was the chief culprit today, reaching over $140 to new all-time highs before backing off a bit, but still closing up $4.50 on the day.
Harry Boxer is a technical consultant to many Wall Street hedge funds and large institutional traders, and author of TheTechTrader.com, a real-time diary of his day, swing and intermediate-term trades. For more of Harry Boxer, sign up for a free 15-day trial to his Real-Time Technical Trading Diary, or sign up for a free 30-day trial to his Top Charts of the Week service.