Energies
A breakout to the upside off a consolidation pattern in crude - what's new? The market momentum after a fairly bearish inventory report comes off of continued geopolitical fears and just general bullish hype by the media. Dollar weakness also contributed to a rise in the energy sector this week amid blowback on an inept Fed and its lack of action. Expect a washout of the shorts on a flair up but expect the market to hold well under $150 as that mark has about as much of a psychological resistance as $100 did. Avoid naked option selling but some ratio call credit spreads might be worth the risk on a short term basis. Natural gas is offering a good setup for a intermediate term bear put play.

Financials
Stocks took a hit this week on a poor Fed move and general bearishness towards the economy. The test of 1280 came as expected and, while the market seems like it is heading to zero, I would still expect a bounce early on this week. Bonds scorched higher and broke a bear trend but remain range bound, thus setting up some premium collection opportunities. The dollar could not hold momentum and my long term bullishness, while still intact, is going to have to be sidelined for a minute while this market works out the kinks in the short term. The euro and Canadian dollar held critical supports but I suspect a retest of those areas sometime in July.

Grains
Price expansion continued in the grains this week as the dollar weakness and oil rise helped to keep prices flying high. The Fed's meeting is starting to impact the market as well. Low rates mean inflation and that means higher commodity prices. Look for the Fed to support the dollar this week and push grain prices south for a while.

This all gets put on pause on Monday as the annual acreage report comes out showing the state of the grains, along with current grain stock numbers. Keep an eye on Australian weather affecting the wheat market as dry weather puts pressure on the crop. Straight puts will play a wicked call skew in this sector, with a focus on beans and corn, and offer a solid premium spike on a price correction in coming weeks. Rice is on its way to 1450.

Meats
Cattle continues to rely on grain price movement to determine its trend. Expect some selling this week following the acreage report. Hogs continue to be in a wide range with premium collection plays recommended.

Metals
The bounce in the euro and oil markets gave gold all it needed to say see'ya later to 850 support and head up towards a critical area just under 950. I expect a metals pullback this week as the dollar recovers in a choppy market. Copper remains a sell along with platinum.


**Chart courtesy of Gecko Software's TracknTrade

Softs
Coffee is getting a technical boost following some real inventory and supply fears out of Brazil. Market volatility could get a little crazy so avoid exposed naked positions. Buy the dips. Cocoa is about turn so don't get caught trying to catch the last bits of this move. Cotton is up for grabs after setting a top and bottom and now trading in between ahead of the acreage numbers. Cotton remains a buy with some patience because it may take until harvest to see this materialize. A ratio call spread is recommended to play some lopsided premium. Sugar is holding on as corn sustains itself at these levels. Sugar is stuck in this correlation for now and if corn is going to turn this week it will likely take sugar with it. OJ remains a buy on value and seasonality.

James Mound is the head analyst for www.MoundReport.com, and author of the commodity book 7 Secrets. For a free email subscription to James Mound's Weekend Commodities Review and Trade of the Month, click here.