The Magical Debt-Free Sweet Spot |
By Bill Bonner |
Published
07/1/2008
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Currency , Futures , Options , Stocks
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Unrated
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The Magical Debt-Free Sweet Spot
This just in… Bloomberg reports that Americans continue to fall further and further behind on their mortgage payments.
Unemployment is rising. And now, carpenters, plumbers and even granite countertop installers are getting jobs with the banks. They're finding work maintaining foreclosed houses.
Today, we're still waiting for a bounce in the stock market, following last week's big drop. But there was little change in the Dow. Nor was there any change in the oil market. The price per barrel stayed right where we left it last week - at $140.
No change in the dollar either - at $1.57 per euro. And gold? It stayed where it was too - at $927 per ounce.
Alan Greenspan was back in the news. He said, "risk was heavily underpriced," last summer. Shame he waited a year to mention it.
As you know, dear reader, we think Mr. Greenspan did somebody wrong. He did the whole nation wrong - by handing out money and credit far too freely for far too long.
But Mr. Greenspan is retired. No point in criticizing him. He went on to say that housing remains a "critical problem." Of course, housing is not a problem at all. It's becoming more affordable. It's only a problem for people who mistook the roof over their heads for a speculative investment. They thought it was something it wasn't. Even for them, the current sell-off in the housing market is a good thing; it brings their feet back to terra firma.
The problem is that the correction in the housing market creates other problems. America is becoming a country of houses where nobody lives. Foreclosed and abandoned houses, and "see through" houses that never heard laughter and never knew dreams, are everywhere. Police say they are becoming a nuisance. Squatters move in. Transients. Drug users. Criminals and bums. Then, the houses become an even bigger problem for neighbors.
(We're surprised. More people, as a percentage of the population, are behind bars in American than in any other country; it's amazing there are even any jaywalkers or litterers still at liberty.)
Aside from that, the fall in housing values undermines the spending power of the typical American consumer. As Dear Readers know so well, Americans had become accustomed to spending money they hadn't yet earned. They just used the rising value of their houses as collateral.
But he who spends what isn't his'n,
Pays it back or goes to prison
You'd expect that they'd now have to become accustomed to NOT spending what they actually have earned. Debts have to be paid. Accounts have to be settled. Mistakes have to be reckoned with.
But heck this is the 21st century. There's a report in today's Financial Times that "consumers fail to save despite the gloom." How do you like those consumers? Are they dumb…or what? We don't know. People think there's some magic, sweet spot in the universe where the old rules no longer apply. Many seem to think they will never have to pay back what they've borrowed. They think the government will bail them out.
Good luck to them…
*** "One Rebate Not Enough," is the headline of an article written by Robert Shiller, appearing in the New York Times. Shiller says the feds' attempt to bail out consumers with tax rebates is too puny to do much good. Besides, he says, much of it ends up stimulating others peoples' economies.
You'll remember our explanation of the world money system. The Fed is no longer America's central bank. Now, it's the world's central bank. But it's a funny old world. The Fed provides money - currently at less than half the rate of consumer price inflation - in order to stimulate the economy. And it does stimulate the economy…the Chinese economy! And the Russian economy! And the Iranian economy (the fourth largest oil exporter in the world)! And the economies of every sandy oil producer in the Arab world!
So do the feds' 'tax rebates.' Americans spend the money on gasoline and other imports. Rebates were intended to be a "booster shot," for the U.S. economy, said President George W. Bush. But it's the foreigners, not Americans, who are getting the boost. The foreigners build sparkling cities. They throw up huge factories. They roll more automobiles off the assembly lines…build more railways…pave more highways.
Yes…and even store more food. Comes an article in today's International Herald Tribune that tells us the foreigners are "hoarding" food…and that his is pushing up food prices even more.
Meanwhile, in the U.S. of A., hearts break…and the lonely wind blows through empty houses.
*** Even the houses of disrepute are feeling a little abandoned. According to an item in the European press, "Credit Crunch Pinches Prostitutes." Brothels in Nevada say their revenues have been cut in half as truckers can't afford the gasoline to make a detour.
What is this country coming to? We don't know. But we don't like the looks of it.
Still, what can we do? The subject came up this weekend. School has finally ended for summer. One son is back from Boston. Two others have finished their tests in France. We took them with us to Normandy for the weekend, so we could all work at painting the windows and doors of our old house, barns and stables. The nice thing about painting is that it is an invitation to conversation.
"Dad, what are you investing in?" one of the boys wanted to know.
We explained that we had put the family money in a variety of things.
"I'm not really an investor - except in the business," we began our explanation. "But I know some people who are good at it. They do research on individual companies - like Warren Buffett. And if they're good, and if they're lucky, they do a bit better than the market itself. In a single year, it wouldn't matter very much. But over a very long time, it adds up. So, I gave them some of the family money.
"Emerging markets, for example. I don't know about next year. Or even 5 years out, but it seems a reasonable bet that 10 or 20 years from now, those investments in emerging markets will have done better than putting the money into U.S. stocks. And if you have someone you trust on the case, you can take a long view, spread out among several different markets, and not worry about it."
"You mean, you put all the money into emerging markets?"
"No…no… only about a quarter of it. The rest is in gold, natural resources, and European stocks - same thing there, I have someone I trust making very long-term investments. I don't know if gold is going up in the short run. But over the very long run, there's never been anything better as a way to store wealth. And I think also that over the long run natural resources will be a good place to be - if you've got someone you trust making the choices. I'm in a very privileged position in that I get to see so many different people trying so many different ways to make money. In my business, I see them…I meet them…I study their theories and see their results. Most of them are a waste of time. Worse than that, they're a danger to your money. But a few are real pros…people you can trust…and people who will do a good job for you."
"Yeah Dad, I've been reading The Daily Reckoning. My thinking is probably getting warped by it. Because I'm putting the money I save this summer into gold too. But Dad, what if gold goes down like it did in the '90s…and what if those managers lose the money? What are you going to do? Shouldn't you have a lot of money in the bank to retire on?"
"Nah…I'm not going to retire. And when I get too old to work…just ship me out to the ranch and let me dry up and blow away."
"Okay Dad…sounds like a plan."
Bill Bonner is the President of Agora Publishing. For more on Bill Bonner, visit The Daily Reckoning.
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