Once again perhaps, we can derive a message from the action of the Lehman 20-Year T-Bond ETF (TLT), which today failed to climb above yesterday's 6-week recovery high at 92.81 in what I thought would be an extension of the "flight to safety" syndrome in an otherwise treacherous equity market. No such action has taken place thus far this morning. In fact, the TLTs have pivoted to the downside just below the 50% recovery resistance plateau of the prior March-June decline from 97.75 to 88.60, which suggests that the TLTs just might be ending a recovery rally phase ahead of a resumption of weakness within the dominant downtrend that has been in force since the January 22 peak at 98.16, and which implies that higher U.S. interest rates will be forthcoming in the months ahead -- strong economy or not.



Mike Paulenoff is a 26-year veteran of the financial markets and author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical chart analysis and trading alerts on all major markets. For more of Mike Paulenoff, sign up for a free 15-Day trial to his MPTrader Diary by clicking here.