Volatile, Indecisive Session |
By Harry Boxer |
Published
07/7/2008
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Stocks
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Unrated
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Volatile, Indecisive Session
The indices had a very volatile and indecisive day today, and closed mixed. The day started out with a big gap up. Then they backed and filled for an hour and a half or so in what looked like bullish formations. But the technicals at that point were belying the pattern, as there were more decliners than advancers.
The indices eventually did roll over in late morning and came down sharply, breaking below Friday's lows and running to new multi-week lows on the S&P 500, but that was not confirmed by the Nasdaq 100, which just barely made a new low in mid-afternoon. They then backed and filled and came on sharply. With about 20 minutes to go they were near the afternoon highs, but they rolled over just as sharply and sold off, giving back between 38% and 50% of the afternoon rally.
Net on the day the Dow was down 56.58, the S&P 500 down 10.59, but the Nasdaq 100 was up 10.58 and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) up 2.22.
Technicals confirmed the negative session today, with 22 to 9 1/2 more decliners than advancers on New York and 19 to 10 on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was better than 2 to 1 negative on New York, on total volume of 1 1/2 billion. Nasdaq traded 2.3 billion, and had about a 6 to 5 positive ratio on advancing over declining volume.
But it was a mixed picture to be sure, and that was reflected in TheTechTrader.com board. There were several point-plus gainers, including DryShips (DRYS) up 2.33, Excel Maritime (EXM) up 1.37 and TBS International (TBSI) up 92 cents in a strong shipping group.
Solar energy stocks were strong, as Canadian Solar (CSIQ) gained back 1.52, Solarfun (SOLF) 1.06, and Energy Conversion Devices (ENER) 1.27.
Other gainers of note, the short instrument SDS was up 1.39 today and Chart of the Week DUG was up 1.54 on the $4 drop in the price of oil today.
On the losing side, point-plus losers included AgFeed Industries (FEED), which made new 3-month lows today, closing at 11.70, down 1.35. Chindex (CHDX) at 15.18 was off 1.22, and A-Power Energy (APWR) at 21.08 was down 1.10.
The USO was down 2.05, reflecting the drop in the price of oil today.
Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, despite the back and forth vacillations and volatility , the indices managed to close mixed. The late pullback came off the short-term declining tops lines, and that rallied failed to take out any levels of resistance, either price or moving average resistance, before backing off.
So the indices still have something to prove here and are still vulnerable to more downside before they're done. But it appears they are trying to begin the bottoming process, We'll see if that is the case, or whether they make lower lows before they are able to stage a stronger rally.
Harry Boxer is a technical consultant to many Wall Street hedge funds and large institutional traders, and author of TheTechTrader.com, a real-time diary of his day, swing and intermediate-term trades. For more of Harry Boxer, sign up for a free 15-day trial to his Real-Time Technical Trading Diary, or sign up for a free 30-day trial to his Top Charts of the Week service.
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