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US Dollar Strengthens on the Session
By John Kicklighter | Published  09/12/2005 | Currency | Unrated
US Dollar Strengthens on the Session

USD/CHF

Dollar Resurgence:  Based mostly on increased interest rate speculation, the USDCHF currency pair continued its most recent selloff in light of no important news releases for the session.  Sentiment is high for a subsequent rise in interest rates as data leans favoritism towards the greenback in addition to oil prices that have since abated from all time highs seen just weeks ago.  Additionally contributing to dollar bulls looks to be the impending election in the euro zone.  Much like the September 11th elections win by Koizumi, a shift in power for the region's largest economy is expected to bring about optimism of prosperity.  However, according to polls today, the majority that was expected for German opposition leader Angela Merkel has been reduced with expectations now entertaining the notion of shared power among the two.  As a result, optimism of change remains stifled till next week.

Technically Speaking:  With the recent break above resistance at 1.2457, swiss bulls pushed the currency pair higher, remaining hovered at the intraday high of 1.2599.  As a result, with oscillators overextended and a probable death cross in Stochastic, a test of the first fib level from the intraday move looks most likely at 1.2504 with subsequent floors at 1.2457, a retest of broken resistance.  Upside potential, however, still remains, if the session high is broken.

Rumorville:  Stops rumored to be above 1.2480 and 1.2500 figures have been taken out with plenty more eyed above the 1.2550-60 resistance.  Additionally, bids are seen at 1.2515/20 with even more slightly below the 1.2500  level.

GBP/USD

Downward Expectations:  Traders anticipating a stay of interest rates were mildly disappointed, leading to a selloff in the pound sterling during the session.  Economic reports earlier on, pitted producer prices that were actually relatively tamed in light of rising commodity prices.  For the month, price increases estimated to be higher by 1.4 percent, actually rose only slightly by 0.2 percent.  However, there was a silver lining as construction output improved in the second quarter.  Continued figures similar to today's print may spark speculation on an increase in rates later on as construction activity tends to add to overall output.  However, expectations remain bearish as consumer spending remains sluggish and housing prices fight to form a bottom.

Technically Speaking:  Much like the move we saw in the Swissie, cable looks to be forming a bottom currently.  Oscillators are well over extended, giving into suggestions of a Golden cross to occur below the reference level.  As a result, a probable retracement looks adequate with a test of the first fib level at 1.8260.  However, any moves higher looked to capped by the tested support at 1.8302.

Rumorville:  Bids remain at 1.8175/80 with stops located right underneath at 1.8165/70.  Offers, subsequently, reside at 1.8240.

AUD/CAD

Case Of Commodities: With relatively no economic data on both sides, the cross currency was subject to trading fluctuations in the major counterparts.  First and foremost, the Aussie, subject to selling pressure, tested major resistance at 0.7750 and failed despite gold contracts on the COMEX nearing 17-year highs.  Currently, contracts have traded through considerable resistance at $450 and remain above at $453 figure.  Additionally, copper prices rose on the session, the most in three months as global stockpiles dipped slightly according to the London Metal Exchange.  Subsequently, the Canadian dollar lost some strength as crude oil prices abated slightly.  Down from all time highs hit just weeks ago, crude contracts are now testing support of the $63.00 price level.  Additionally, some speculation may arise late on tomorrow's Merchandise Trade report.  Ultimately, the weight of Aussie selling dominated pushing the cross lower, however stabilizing at the current level.

Technically Speaking:  Although approaching the upper resistance of the current channel, potential upside remains according to the Stochastic oscillator.  As a result, the first logical support looks to be the even 0.9100 figure with a near term secondary floor at 0.9084.  However, with a lot of short selling potential seen in the AUD major, the aforementioned floors may not be as strong as AUDCAD bulls would like.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.