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Solid Follow-Through Rally In Stock Market
http://www.tigersharktrading.com/articles/12632/1/Solid-Follow-Through-Rally-In-Stock-Market/Page1.html
By Harry Boxer
Published on 07/16/2008
 

The indices had a fantastic follow-through session to yesterday's reversal day and we may have very well seen an important intermediate low put in, as overhead resistance was taken out on several layers.


Solid Follow-Through Rally In Stock Market

The indices had a fantastic follow-through session to yesterday's reversal day and we may have very well seen an important intermediate low put in, as overhead resistance was taken out on several layers. However, much more key overhead and formidable resistance as well as the major declining tops lines and top of the channels are still ahead of us and we still have work to do. But a very solid session today, indeed.

The day started out with a move down, as yesterday's late pullback was extended earlier, but that retest held above yesterday morning's pullback lows, and they snapped back with a very strong morning move that took the Nasdaq 100 back up to yesterday's highs very quickly. At that point the S&P 500 fell short , so they rolled over to retest the intraday moving averages and trendlines, but held them. When that occurred a very strong 3-wave rally ensued that lasted foe the rest of the session and right into the close, closing at the highs for the day going away on most of the indices.

Net on the day the Dow was up 278 plus, the S&P 500 up 30 1/2, and the Nasdaq 100 up 45 1/2. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) was up 12.70, a gain of nearly 4 percent.

The technicals swung sharply to the plus side. Advance-declines were a little better than 3 to 1 positive on New York and about 3 1/2 to 1 positive on Nasdaq. The story today was the up/down, which was 10 to 1 positive on Nasdaq on just under 2 1/2 billion traded. New York traded about 1 2/3 billion and had a positive ratio of 3 1/2 to 1 on advancing over declining volume.

So, it was a very solid session, closing at the highs for the day going away on strong technicals, with overall volume good but not super heavy.

TheTechTrader.com board had a very good day. Leading the way today was Energy Conversion Devices (ENER), which jumped 4.94 to 71.21. China Finance Online (JRJC) jumped to 17.91, up 2.35, in a firm Chinese sector.

Solar energy stocks were firm but didn’t' wow me today. Canadian Solar (CSIQ) was up just 81 cents, Solarfun (SOLF) up 1.04, and JA Solar (JASO) up 62 cents.

Excel Maritime (EXM) was up 1.55, DryShips (DRYS) up 1.23, and TBS International (TBSI) up 1.14 in a firm shipping sector.

Sigma Designs (SIGM) had a very solid session, up 1.18, approaching key technical resistance. Aluminum Corp. of China (ACH) was up 1.75 to 27.80. Our DUG portfolio position was up 1.30 to 33.89, reaching as 34.90 at one point on another sharp drop in oil.

As you can imagine, the reverse index ETFS were all very weak today, with the SDS down 3.74 and QID down 2.28. The USO (oil ETF) was down 3.47.

Other stocks of note, the financials had a terrific session today, with Wells Fargo (WFC) up more than 6 1/2, Fannie Mae +2.18 and Freddie Mac +1.57. Washington Mutual (WM)also was up 92 cents, a nice percentage gain there. Chart of the Week Car-Mart (CRMP) jumped 67 cents today, closing at 20, a new 2 year high.

Chindex (CHDX) gained 52 cents, China Architectural (CAEI) up 47 cents to 8.05, and Chart of the Week AeroVironment (AVAV) was up 99 cents to 31.37, setting a new all time high.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, key price, moving average and declining tops resistance were taken out today, but there's still more formidable overhead resistance to work on. The 1870 level on the NDX represents lateral price and major declining channel tops resistance. Although we are some 27 points away from that, I would expect the market would have a chance of moving up additionally tomorrow and challenging that level.

On the S&P 500, important overhead resistance is near the 1255 area. We closed at 1245, and that may be challenged tomorrow as well.

We'll see if we can extend this a third day tomorrow. It was certainly a strong day for the bulls, and all I have to say is: It's about time!

Harry Boxer is a technical consultant to many Wall Street hedge funds and large institutional traders, and author of TheTechTrader.com, a real-time diary of his day, swing and intermediate-term trades. For more of Harry Boxer, sign up for a free 15-day trial to his Real-Time Technical Trading Diary, or sign up for a free 30-day trial to his Top Charts of the Week service.