1. U.K. Claimant Count Rate incl. Average Earnings
2. Canadian Manufacturing Shipments
3. U.S. Advanced Retail Sales
4. U.S. Industrial Production
5. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Monetary Policy Decision

UK Claimant Count Rate (MoM)(Aug)(8:30GMT, 4:30EDT)
Consensus:  4.8%
Previous:  4.8%

Outlook: Despite a likely increase in unemployment claims by 5.0K, the seventh consecutive month of increases, the claimant rate probably held at 4.8%, the second lowest of the Group of Seven industrialized countries.  Lending to the notion, the PMI services employment component released earlier showed strength in service sector employment in the month of August.  However, the overall manufacturing sector continues to weaken and will likely more than offset the positive services employment figures.  NTC reported higher-than-expected permanent job placements and salaries last week, suggesting some positive-side potential for the 5.0K figure.  Additionally, average earnings including bonus likely increased 4.1% on a three-month-average, year-over-year basis versus 4.2% last in July.  Meanwhile, August inflation checked in at 2.4% year-over-year, higher than the Bank of England target of 2.0%.

Previous: On August 4th, the Bank of England cut its benchmark rates for the first time in two years on news that the British economy expanded at its slowest pace in 12 years.  Higher oil prices prompted producers to reduce workforces in an effort to cut costs and improve corporate bottom lines.  As a result, last month, unemployment claims rose for the sixth consecutive month to 867,000.  However, the unemployment rate remained unaffected, rising to 4.8% in May where it has been ever since.  Subsequently, average earnings including bonus rose 4.2 percent in the month of July and may contribute to increased consumer spending in the economy.  However, a definitive move by consumers may be a little premature at this point as housing valuations remain stagnant and interest rates on payments relatively high for individuals. 

Canadian Manufacturing Shipments (MoM)(July)(12:30GMT, 8:30EDT)
Consensus:  0.5%
Previous:  0.5%

Outlook: July manufacturing shipments likely rose, led by an increase in transportation equipment and petroleum product orders.  Increased raw material costs in resource-rich Canada should continue to help manufacturing figures.  In June, new orders rose 0.4%, also suggesting a strong July.  However, on the flip side, new orders probably weakened, mirroring recent US new order figures for the month.  With Tuesday data showing Canada's trade surplus widening by more than expected in August, stronger-than-expected manufacturing figures would increase the likelihood that the Bank of Canada will raise rates in October.  Oil prices are projected to rise in the near and long term by most analysts contributing to increased speculation.  As an oil-exporting nation, higher energy prices will benefit Canadian manufacturing shipment and trade figures ultimately boosting the valuations contributing to the overall figure.  Risks include continued appreciation in the Canadian dollar, which could be a detriment to manufacturing orders.

Previous: Canadian factory shipments rose 0.5 percent in June, as commodity producers got a boost from higher oil, steel and coal prices.  Not including petroleum and coal, which rose 6.5 percent, factory shipments declined 0.1 percent.  Unfilled factory orders rose 0.7% and new orders rose 0.4%. The inventory turnover ratio was 1.29 in June, higher than last June's record lows of 1.21, matching consensus expectations.  With an economy in full-throttle, the Bank of Canada raised interest rates 25 basis points to 2.75 percent for the first time since October in an effort to curb future inflationary concerns.

US Retail Sales (MoM) (AUG) (12:30GMT, 8:30EDT)
Consensus: -1.4%
Previous:  1.8%

Outlook: After two months of stellar performance, the headline figure of the advanced retail sales report is expected to flip to a figure of -1.4%, which would be the biggest fall in 29 months. After auto discounts opened the floodgates on sales in July, it is expected that people bought a lower amount of cars in August, though the discounts will not end until October 3rd. As for gasoline sales, prices rose exorbitantly in August and the average had hit a high of $3.07 a gallon by the first week of September due to Hurricane Katrina, possibly created a positive offsetting effect in tomorrow's report. Previously released vehicle sales and individual retailers' sales have already shown that August results were lower than expected. Conversely, August's SpendingPulse report, a service provided by MasterCard Advisors, showed that national retail sales had actually grown by 1.0% while 0.4% of this was due to the shock in gasoline prices in the days following Katrina. Although data provided by private industry is often different from government data, this number certainly spurs uncertainty going into the Census Bureau's report.

Previous: Retail sales surged 1.8% from June on increased purchases of autos and gasoline while the core measure, excluding autos, rose by a modest 0.3%. This follows a 1.7% total increase in June and the corresponding core growth of 0.9%. Sales at motor vehicle dealerships rose by over $3 billion or 7.3% in the month as the Big 3 North American car manufacturers offered their employee discount prices to all customers. With the average retail regular gas price rising to what was, at the time, an all-time high of $2.32 a gallon by mid-July, gasoline station sales accelerated to a 2.4% monthly gain compared to June's 2.0%. Further refining the data, if gasoline is excluded from the figures, there is no change registered between June and July while this measure had achieved 0.8% growth between the prior two months. The headline figure is good news for third-quarter personal consumption and GDP since retail sales make up nearly half of all consumer spending. However, the underlying details prove worrisome for months to come as the effect of the auto discounts will disappear with the promotions ending by early October.

US Industrial Production (AUG) (13:15GMT, 9:15EDT)
Consensus: 0.3%
Previous: 0.1%

Outlook: Industrial production is expected to have accelerated to a 0.3% gain in August after a smaller 0.1% increase in July. Auto production probably increased this month after falling 2.9% in July while sales rose 7.3%. With inventories pared down further than intended by the Big 3 manufacturers' employee discount programs, production growth will have to resume this month to make up for the greater-than-forecast demand. Mining output probably increased after June's hurricane disruption, according to the Department of Energy, coal production surged 6.5% in the month after falling by a smaller amount in June, petroleum production increased and natural gas output also rose marginally. Distortions from shutdowns related to Hurricane Katrina will mostly be seen in September's data as August's survey period only contained 3 days of the disruption. On the whole, production is still growing, but the trend is flattening out now and we may not see the same performance from earlier this year going forward, especially as energy prices continue to restrict output.

Previous: In July, both manufacturing and industrial production only rose by 0.1% after climbing by 0.8% in June. Auto production was cut by nearly 3% as manufacturers tried to sell off the previous months' accumulation of inventory. Durable goods output fell by 1.6% while orders had unexpectedly increased in the month while stockpiles of these consumer goods were also pared down. With total production of consumer goods falling by half a percent in the month, what little amount of production growth that occurred was heavily supported by business equipment output, which grew 1.3% in the month. Meanwhile, being in the hurricane season now also means that Gulf of Mexico oil and gas platforms experienced shutdowns, which contributed to the 1.3% drop in mining output, the largest decline since last September. Despite the overall disappointment in the figure, both national and regional ISMs for July point to resumed growth as both indices for production and new orders continue to grow.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Monetary Policy Decision (21:00GMT, 17:00EDT)
Consensus:  6.75%
Previous: 6.75%

Outlook:  Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Bollard is expected to keep interest rates at 6.75 percent, the highest of any nation with a top credit rating, in a decision he will announce tomorrow.  The governor has kept the rate steady since March with expectations that the country's economic growth will slow going into the yearend, as well as taking into account recent record trade deficits.  Gasoline prices, which have grown twenty percent to record highs in the past few months, have also pressured inflation toward its highest level in five years.  Bollard is required by the government to keep annual inflation between 1 and 3 percent, however it is predicted that inflation will reach 3.5 percent this year * its highest since 2000.  However, stress on consumer spending and already low business confidence will most likely push Bollard to consider cutting short term interest rates next year.  Being that this decision comes two days before the September 17th general election, politically, a rate change is unlikely as well.

Previous: At the end of July, Governor Bollard kept the official cash rate at 6.75 percent, the highest since it was introduced in March 1999, stating that borrowing costs may rise further due to mounting inflation.  Subsequently, the governor has raised this short term rate seven times since January 2004 in order to curb inflation as overall economic activity heated up.  Consumer prices rose by 2.8 percent in the year to June, already nearing the top of the benchmark targeted 1 to 3 percent range.  Bollard noted that years of strong economic growth, fueled by exports, has stretched the nation's economy and that time will be required to tame current growth.  Rising oil prices have been mainly attributed to rising inflationary pressures and look to continue in crimping consumer demand and corporate investment.  Additionally, record trade deficit have been a cause for concern as exports fell by 5.1 percent in June while imports continued to rise, hitting a five-month high.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.