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Blue Chips Break Several Layers Of Support As Market Caves
By Harry Boxer | Published  07/24/2008 | Stocks | Unrated
Blue Chips Break Several Layers Of Support As Market Caves

The markets had a very negative session, ending very near the lows for the day going away. The day started out with a slight move up, but that was it for the highs for the day. They then stair-stepped their way down sharply in the morning, bouncing mid-day. Although the Nasdaq 100 did better during that portion of the session, it also failed to take out earlier rally higher resistance.

In the afternoon, when the S&P and Dow continued to make lower lows, Nasdaq kept holding support, but it finally did cave in the last hour,as well, and then all three were in unison on the downside going into the last 30 minutes or so.

Net on the day the Dow was down 283, the S&P 500 down just under 30, and the Nasdaq 100 about 28 1/2. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) was down nearly 15 today, or almost 5%, a very negative session for the indices.

If you're looking for a consolidative, bullish-looking pullback, this was not it.

The technicals were quite negative by more than 4 to 1 on New York on advance-declines and more than 2 to 1 on Nasdaq. Up/down was even worse -- 7 to 1 negative on New York on total volume of a little less than 1 2/3 billion. Nasdaq traded over 2.5 billion and had a 4 1/2 to 1 negative ratio of on advancing over declining volume.

TheTechTrader.com board as a result of today's action was very negative with some big multiple-point losers, particularly the shippers, with DryShips (DRYS) down 4.46, Excel Maritime (EXM) down 2.67, and TBS International (TBSI) down 3.78 leading the way to the downside.

Energy Conversion Devices (ENER) had a very difficult session, continuing its recent pullback, down 4.77 to 61.08. Canadian Solar (CSIQ), one of our portfolio positions,also had a difficult session. After nearly reaching 28 in the morning, it reversed negatively and closed at 26.06, down 1.59. AVAV, one of our recent Charts of the Week, got hammed for 2.38 at 30.02. Aluminum Corp. of China (ACH) at 25.86 was down 1.72.

Also in the solar energy group, JA Solar (JASO) closed at 14 was down 1.51, and Solarfun (SOLF) at 12.78 was down 1.12.

So the shippers and junior solars today had particularly difficult, as did the Chinese stocks. China Finance Online (JRJC) in that sector was also down 1.15. Verasun Energy (VSE) closed at 6.02, down 1.02 today.WM got hammered from 5.06 to 3.56 before bouncing into the close, at 4.03, down 62 on 1/3 of a billion shares.

On the upside, there were some fractional gainers, although the SDS and the QID -- the NDX and SPY short instruments -- gained 2.78 and 1.49 respectively. The USO was up 1.23, snapping back from its recent drop, and Sigma Designs (SIGM) was up 45 cents.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices as indicated had a very poor session, breaking several layers of support on the S&P and Dow, but holding for most of the session at 2-day support on the Nasdaq 100. Although near the end it did finally cave and broke key short-term support as well.

Although the overall patterns aren't broken yet and the bottoming patterns of the last 3-4 weeks are still essentially intact, the bleeding has to be stopped very quickly and they’ll have to reverse this decline in order to establish an important low or we may see a full retest of the lows or worse.

Harry Boxer is a technical consultant to many Wall Street hedge funds and large institutional traders, and author of TheTechTrader.com, a real-time diary of his day, swing and intermediate-term trades. For more of Harry Boxer, sign up for a free 15-day trial to his Real-Time Technical Trading Diary, or sign up for a free 30-day trial to his Top Charts of the Week service.