1. Swiss Industrial Production
2. Euro zone Consumer Price Index
3. U.S. Current Account Balance
4. U.S. TIC Data - Net Foreign Security Purchases
5. University of Michigan Confidence

Swiss Industrial Production (QoQ, YoY)
Consensus: 3.8% (QoQ); 0.5% (YoY)
Previous: -6.5% (QoQ); -0.3% (YoY)

Outlook: Highly volatile Swiss Industrial Production likely recovered some of first quarter's losses in the second quarter. Average estimates have industrial production rising 3.8 percent on a quarter-over-quarter basis and 0.5 percent on a year-over-year basis. Second quarter GDP figures released last week showed that the Swiss economy grew at 0.3 percent on a quarter-over-quarter basis and at 1.1 percent on a year-over-year basis, exceeding analyst expectations. Exports rose 6.3 percent as the Swiss Franc weakened significantly against the euro and the dollar. Some of this may have also been due to growing demand. Germany's second quarter GDP checked in 1.5 percent higher in the second quarter compared to a 0.3 percent drop in the first quarter, signaling much higher consumption in a country that buys up 20 percent of all Swiss exports. All of these indicators point to hefty demand for industrial products in the quarter, which probably drove output ahead.

Previous: Quarterly Swiss Industrial production plummeted 6.5 percent versus a consensus fall of 4.6 percent in the first quarter, the largest quarterly decline in over two years, amid a precipitous rise in oil prices and slowing growth in the rest of Europe. Crude oil prices neared 60 dollars and the economy of a major trading partner, Germany, shrank in the first quarter. The economic climate of first quarter also caused the Swiss National Bank to hold its lending rate at 0.75% while cutting 2005 growth forecasts to 1 to 1.5 percent citing oil and export concerns.

Eurozone Consumer Price Index (MoM, YoY) (AUG)
Consensus: 0.1% (MoM); 2.1% (YoY)
Previous: -0.1% (MoM); 2.2% (YoY)

Outlook: Germany, France, and Italy, the EU-12's three largest economies, recently checked in with EU Harmonized CPI figures. Year-over-year figures showed inflation of 1.8% versus 1.9% consensus, 2.0% versus 1.9% consensus, and 2.2% versus 2.1% consensus respectively. Inflation exceeded consensus in two out of the three countries, showing possible plus-side inflationary potential on higher crude oil prices, which are 46 percent higher than a year ago. Additionally, the seasonally adjusted Bloomberg Eurozone retail sales index rose to 51.9 from 51.0 in July; a reading above 50 signals growth. This higher consumer demand may very well have helped prices increase as well. Related to the expected increase in the CPI, the ECB raised inflationary estimates and cut growth expectations on September 1st. If inflation stays above the 2.0 percent ECB ceiling and economic growth figures continue improving, the ECB could be pressured to raise rates 25 basis points to 2.25% in the near future.

Previous: In July, inflation in the dozen Euro-sharing nations rose at the fastest pace in seven months with prices 2.2 percent higher than a year ago. The inflation rate has been at or above the European Central Bank's threshold of 2.0 percent in 15 of the past 16 months. CPI excluding volatile food and energy checked in at a much lower figure of 1.3 percent, showing that higher energy costs are to blame for Europe's budding stagflation problem. The low core rate and the still nascent economic recovery are probably what's keeping the ECB's benchmark rate at 2.00% despite the fact that consumer inflation is now above their 2.0% benchmark.

US Current Account Balance (2Q) (12:30 GMT, 8:30AM EDT)
Consensus: -$193.0B
Previous: -$195.1B

Outlook: For the second quarter, the balance on the US current account is expected to recede ever so slightly to -$193.0 billion from -$195.1 billion. Looking at the monthly trade balance data, we see that the deficit on goods and services had a small increase of $274 million from $173.1 billion in the first quarter to $173.3 in the second quarter. However, this is larger than the goods and services balance of $171.8 originally recorded in first quarter's current account data. Hence, it does actually lend a bit of upside risk to second quarter's deficit number. In terms of the income receipts component of the current account, the relatively congruent performance in world equity markets at the time should keep the performance of that section fairly steady. Given this information, a small retrace is certainly possible especially after two consecutive record-breaking quarters, however there is some slight upside risk.

Previous: The current account balanced ballooned to an all-time high of $195.1 billion in the first quarter, up from $188.4 billion in the fourth quarter. The median economists' estimate was much lower at $190 billion. On the whole, despite the widening deficit, relative export growth actually beat import growth in the period with a 2.1 percent increase versus 1.9 percent in imports. In terms of goods, the growth rates were nearly identical, both being just under 2.3 percent. The US consumers' unrelenting demand for foreign goods and the ability of the US to attract foreign investments is what has driven the deficit to 6.4 percent of the gross domestic product. Despite the low value of the dollar against other major currencies at the end of last year, a fairly sharp rally of the dollar in the beginning of this year may have spurred buying. Although current account growth leveled off between the fourth quarter and the first quarter, consider that just one year ago, this measure was $146.1 billion, which means over 33.5 percent growth in just one year. Creating even more concern is the fact that with the gains in oil prices and the loss of price competitiveness of US goods due to the dollar's recent strength, this balance is not likely to improve by much in the near future and could worsen.

Net Foreign Security Purchases (JUL) (13:00 GMT, 9:00 EDT)
Consensus: $60.0B
Previous: $71.2B

Outlook: After reaching a four-month record in June, net foreign security purchases probably subsided to $60.0 billion in July. One obviously factor in this and future releases will be the Chinese yuan revaluation which took place on July 21st. Although the value of the change was fairly small, it does mean that the Chinese government will need to accumulate less dollar-denominated assets in order to prop up the value of the currency against the yuan. Countering this is the fact that foreign investment in the US bond market will continue to follow the trend of growth it has seen since its lows around this time last year. Strong growth and other factors in the US are continuingly positive for the foreign investor. The dollar has seen strength in the currency markets as the Federal Reserve pursues its plan of raising interest rates helping US dollar assets seem relatively attractive compared to rival countries in which growth is not expected to be nearly as strong.

Previous: Foreign investors increased holdings of US assets in June by $71.2 billion, the most in four months, continuing the upward trend seen this year. Record purchases were made of US corporate bonds, with the number of purchases rising 156 percent to $52.2 billion as exhibited by the falling yields on treasuries. Of the $4.1 trillion in marketable US treasuries, $2 trillion are held by foreign investors. Foreigners also increased net stock holdings by $107 million as the US equity markets dipped in July, providing a good buying opportunity as the US economy looked to continue growing at a strong pace. Manufacturing in New York expanded at a faster than expected pace, the housing market continued to boom, and the jobless rate was at a four year low. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates to 3.5 percent, the highest since 2001, to head off inflation in the rapidly growing US economy, attracting many foreign investors to dollar-denominated assets.

University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (SEP P) (13:45 GMT, 9:45 EDT)
Consensus: 86.0
Previous: 89.1

Outlook: US consumer confidence likely continued its decline amid concerns over Hurricane Katrina's effect on economic growth and on soaring oil prices in the storm's aftermath. With the average cost of a gallon of regular unleaded jumping over the $3 level to around $3.07 in the first week of September from August's average of $2.54, there's little doubt that consumers are now concerned and painfully aware of what could happen to their home heating bills this winter. As a result, they are shopping less and staying at home more, threatening consumer spending and economic expansion. August retail sales data, which doesn't capture the bulk of Katrina's effects, already fell 2.1 percent, the biggest drop since November 2001, on a decline in auto sales following months of employee pricing by major automakers. Not including autos, retail sales grew by 1.0 percent, twice as much as the 0.5 percent consensus, showing the economy was able to withstand pre-Katrina record fuel costs. Tomorrow's consumer confidence release will be our first glimpse of the effects of Katrina since it will be among the first September data to be released.

Previous: Final August figures showed that US consumer confidence fell as oil prices soared. Confidence fell by a greater-than-expected 7.4 points to 89.1, its largest monthly decline since February 2004 and far more than the expected 4.0-point drop. The drop in confidence exceeded even the most skeptical estimate of 91.5. Consumers started to feel squeezed by higher prices, as crude oil costs were 50 percent higher than last year. The nation's largest retailer, Wal-Mart, reported a less-than-expected rise in same store sales of 3.6 percent, a tribute to the sensitivity of retail sales on crude oil prices.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.