Let's Talk About Market Bottoms |
By Price Headley |
Published
09/16/2008
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Currency , Futures , Options , Stocks
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Unrated
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Let's Talk About Market Bottoms
Market bottoms. That golden spot where we can all say, "Oh yeah, I caught the exact low." In a dynamic world such as the stock market, bottoms are elusive and random in terms of time and space. How so? Consider the confirmation of a bottom, which naturally occurs after it has been made. Who knows when that'll be, right? But like being on time for work, it's very rare to time it correctly. When you leave home for your job, in most cases, you'll either be early or late. This is true for market bottoms, so why bother searching for it? Is it ego-driven? Is there something really gained by finding the bottom? I prefer another approach.
The Media Obsession
The media loves to cover this topic. Of course, bull markets are more exciting than bear markets, and the search for the elusive bottom gets ratings and perks interest. CNBC covers this each day, looking for the one rally that will signify a bottom. Analysts come on their shows proclaiming victory when the Dow rises 250 points. But when the market loses 300 points the next day, the bottom search continues, and woe is me! Jim Cramer, a noted bull constantly talks about bull markets. He's no dummy, though. Having been a fund manager, he's quite aware of the impact bear markets have, and the swift but large profits made during the cycle. However, ratings are weak if you're playing the bear. Jim has been talking about a bottom for months now -- 1200 on the SPX will be it. So, he constantly pawns off his bull talk on a naive audience, to only get trapped over and over again. How many times can you be hit in the head with a club before crying uncle?
What's particularly disturbing is this pied piper is leading his viewers and readers down a dark hole, not preparing them for difficult times ahead. Oh sure, he makes some good calls on occasion. But a broken clock is also right twice a day.
The Secret Ingredient
Discipline to stay away from the noise is most important. The less attention is paid to the minutiae and little details the better off you will be. While we may boast about getting in at the bottom or out at the top, that's just a moment in time. What does "catching a bottom" really mean? Is the market going higher? Maybe it just stays at the bottom for awhile. Then finding the turn up is really the key, right? That could be weeks, months or even years. The point here is not to search for bottoms, but find trends. Traders and investors can make the best money when the market is moving, regardless of direction.
Price Headley is the founder and chief analyst of BigTrends.com.
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