Indices Reverse Higher In Volatile Session
It was a wild and volatile session today to say the least, as the indices were all over the place and the FOMC announced their rate decision.
The day started out with a gap down. They made new multi-session & in the case of the SPX multi year lows, as the Nasdaq 100 plunged down to 1683 at the low. The S&P 500 was a tick under 1170, at 1169 and change, which happens to be a major Fib retracement level. At that point they staged a 3-wave rally and a sharp one. They backed and filled very similarly to yesterday morning and decided to roll over, also like yesterday afternoon.
After the FOMC decision came out and they held interest rates unchanged, the market dropped like a rock for about 10-15 min, before turning around very sharply and exploding back up from about the 1687 level to 1740, more than 50 points on the Nasdaq 100 in less than half an hour. The SPX at that same point went from 1175 or so to over 1210, a 35-point rally. So it was a heck of a run. In the last 45 minutes they backed off before the close and then bounced into the close.
Net on the day it was a positive session, with the Dow back over 11,000 to 11,059, up 141 1/2, the S&P 500 up 20.90, and the Nasdaq 100 up 18.62. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) was up just 4.60.
The technicals were all over the place, but ended to the downside on advance-declines on New York by 17 to 14, but were about 4 to 3 positive on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was very positive, a little less than 2 to 1 positive on New York on total volume of a very heavy 2.15 billion. Nasdaq traded 3.2 billion, monster volume, and had a ratio of about 11 to 5 positive on advancing over declining volume.
TheTechTrader.com board was extremely active, with some major gainers. Leading the way today was Energy Conversion Devices (ENER), which rallied $8 off its low from the morning and closed up 5.66 on the day on 2 1/4 million shares. Sequenom (SQNM), one of our model portfolio positions, had an excellent session, at 22.93, closing at the high for the day going away, up 2.43 on more than 1 million shares.
Recent Chart of the Day Continental Airlines (CAL) was up 2.44 and United (UAUA) up 1.66, in a very strong airline sector, as oil plunged down near $90 a barrel, down more than $5 today. DUG ultrashort oil & gas ETF was down 2.51, while the USO was down 1.31.
Other stocks of note on the plus side, TWP at 20.40 was up 1.35, a nice snapback session. Canadian Solar (CSIQ) at 23.62 was up 1.06, JA Solar (JASO) at 11.38 was up 94 cents, and Solarfun (SOLF) at 12.99 up 24 cents. But that doesn't tell the story, as most of them were sharply lower in the morning but reversed nicely to close positive on the day. So a reversal day across the board on the junior solars.
On the downside, the short ETF instruments fell sharply, as would be expected, with the SDS down 2.44 and QID 89 cents. AIG suffered, and was all over the place today, dropping to as low as 1.25 and rallying up to 5 1/4 at one point. It closed at 3.75, but in the aftermarket was down 1 1/2 to about 2 1/4,as the gov’t announced they would take an 80% stake for $85 billion. It another 230 million shares today .
Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices were down in the morning, up late morning, retested in the afternoon and made higher lows, and then rallied sharply after the initial reaction to the FOMC.
With the SPX closing near the highs for the day going away, the Nasdaq 100 was off 15 points from its high. So it was a mixed closing, but a strong session in general with mixed technicals as well. The jury is still out, but we‘ll be watching to see if they can take out overhead resistance tomorrow near 1740 NDX and 1218-20 zone on the SPX.
Harry Boxer is a technical consultant to many Wall Street hedge funds and large institutional traders, and author of TheTechTrader.com, a real-time diary of his day, swing and intermediate-term trades. For more of Harry Boxer, sign up for a free 15-day trial to his Real-Time Technical Trading Diary, or sign up for a free 30-day trial to his Top Charts of the Week service.
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