The last couple of weeks have been excessively volatility, thanks in part to a triple-witching last week. That back-and-forth movement has pretty well disguised any new - or sustained - sector trends, if there are any at all. So today, we have little in the way of compelling charts to discuss; everything looks stock in a range, or in the case of utilities, energy , and gold, looks to be dangerously overbought. So today, we'll switch gears and focus less on the domestic sector charts, and more on the recent sector rotation trends. This will be an in-depth look at the rotation analysis we added a few weeks ago. We'll then look at yet another overseas opportunity.
The principle will be the same as last time. We want to know how the major sectors have fared in the last month (20 trading days), and compare that to how they were doing one month ago. Truthfully, there's not a whole lot revealed with this technique either - all sectors are still stuck in the same rut. But at least with this viewpoint, we can discern a few nuances that may be worth knowing as we head into fourth quarter.
Sector Performance Last Month vs. One Month Ago
See the problem? There's not a lot going on in any direction. Technically speaking, the utilities and energy sectors have the strongest charts, and are therefore the prime opportunities. On the other hand, we have to be realistic about how much further those two sectors can continue without a break. We like them both, but at this point, we'd rather see a pullback before jumping in. The only sector that we see as 'worth buying' now is in healthcare. We've been bullish on the healthcare stocks for a while, but the smooth even pace of their gains doesn't leave them subject to a massive wave of profit-taking. It would definitely pay to dig deeper into the broad healthcare sector though. The two biggest moving components of the sector are pharmaceuticals and biotech. The former is slowly chipping away at a recovery from a long-term lull. The latter is well into a bullish move, and perhaps ripe for a dip. Medical equipment and healthcare providers are also looking a little weak in the short-term, but both look more than able to make a solid recovery in the long run.
Over the last few months, we've looked at several overseas opportunities. A month ago we were bullish on Latin America, three months ago we were bullish on Australia, and we originally went bullish on Australia last November. These three picks have done phenomenally well, not just because they were superior picks, but because most foreign economies are a little stronger than the domestic (U.S.) economy. We don't anticipate that changing anytime soon, with the U.S. Federal Reserve still largely handcuffed into pushing interest rates higher. Pair that up with the worry of unprecedented oil prices and the aftermath of a devastating hurricane, and the pessimism about U.S. stocks is understandable.
Today we'll highlight the opportunity we see in far east. The Dow Jones Asia Pacific 1800 Index (DJPI) hit another new last week, as it has for several weeks now. The volume behind the move was growing all the way up to that point, so we don't see any waning in the momentum. We'll set a target of 136 for the index, with a stop at any close under the 50 day line, currently at 111. There are more universal indexes we could use, such as the NIKKEI or the Hang Seng, but we wanted to highlight that this bullishness applies broadly to the entire region.
Dow Jones Asia Pacific 1800 Index (DJPI) - Daily
Price Headley is the founder and chief analyst of BigTrends.com.