Crude oil prices are down about 7% from the intraday high and point towards a retest of the September lows at 93.36 and 90.50 next. Let's notice that yesterday's rally and today's initial attempt at extending yesterday's rally failed right at the sharply declining 20-day moving average, which also represents the mid-point of the (width) of the declining Bollinger Bands. This is classic action: in a bull market, pullbacks find support at the rising 200-day moving average, while in a bear market rallies fail and reverse to the downside from the declining 20-day, as is the case right now. I expect oil prices to plunge through the September lows on the way $80 next. Lower oil equates to a downside target of 70.00 in the US Oil Fund ETF (AMEX: USO).



Mike Paulenoff is a 26-year veteran of the financial markets and author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical chart analysis and trading alerts on all major markets. For more of Mike Paulenoff, sign up for a free 15-Day trial to his MPTrader Diary by clicking here.