- Euro zone Industrial New Orders
- U.K. CBI Industrial Trends - Total Orders
- Canadian Consumer Price Index
Euro Zone Industrial New Orders (MoM)(JUL)(9:00 GMT, 5:00 EDT)
Consensus: 1.4%
Previous: 3.1%
Outlook: Growth in the euro-zone, reflected through industrial output of 0.2% in July, has been right in line with analysts' estimates, with a slight recovery in the economy looking to remain for the moment. Germany has been the leader of the euro-zone with an overall increase of production output of 1.1% in the month. Subsequently, as the third quarter approaches, it is believed that Germany's manufacturing sector will continue to do well, given that orders and the demand for their exports remain at the current level. Additionally, German factory levels continue to do well despite fears of increasing oil prices. A driving force in this increase could be the 4% increase in domestic orders. However, the German PMI has dipped ever so slightly in August from July, after rising from June. June's PMI of 35.1 rose in July to 35.5, beating expectations of only a 35.3 rise. The PMI then dropped in August to 35.3 as fears of rising oil prices and the economic aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. It is expected that the PMI growth may continue to slow in wake of these current conditions, resulting in slightly lighter industrial orders.
Previous: The euro-zone has been experiencing an increase in industrial orders over the past few months. In June, the industrial orders rose by 3.1% from May, beating analysts' expectations of a 2.1% increase. In a summary of the industrial orders, basic metals, machinery and equipment and transport equipment all rose from May to June. This increase could be due to the strong performance in Germany, whose industrial orders increased to 3.1% in June from 2.3% in May. Contributing to Germany's growth is the weakness of the euro against the US dollar, which has fallen by 10% over the year. The recent depreciation of the euro has given the German industries a boost in exports.
UK CBI Industrial Trends Survey (SEP) (06:00 GMT, 10:00 EDT)
Total Orders Export Orders
Consensus: n/a n/a
Previous: -29 -17
Outlook: The September survey of industrial trends by the UK's Confederation of British Industry Inc.'s will again be weighted down as contributing economic factors continue to weigh on companies' slim profit margins. The leading monthly indicator is likely to respond to diminishing domestic and foreign demand for British products to see a limited change off of its August reading. From the supply side, manufacturer's confidence is likely to take a blow as mounting costs, especially from record energy prices, continue to enlarge their base costs. The inability of manufacturers to pass on the mounting costs to consumers will likely play the larger role on depressing optimism of the future business outlook. Consumer spending has suffered over the past months as peaking oil prices have resulted in larger bills at the pump and for air conditioning. Diminishing consumer confidence has encouraged British citizens to hold onto their pounds rather than turn them back into the economy. Confidence fell to a 10-month low in August with household spending barely budging over the first half of the year. Consumers have been parsimonious with their optimism for the economy as public debt remains weighty and reports of economic growth do not spark any hopeful outlook with a reading of growth at the slowest pace in three years at 1.8 percent for the past quarter and the a downward revised forecast of 2.0 percent growth for the year. Exports, which have sustained sales with the strained domestic consumption over the past couple of quarters, also have a bleak outlook. The European community has suffered its own economic problems with near historic levels of unemployment and falling spending, which translates into weaker demand for UK goods.
Previous: According to the August release of the CBI's monthly survey of industrial trends, manufacturers' order books fell to their lowest levels since October of 2003. Total orders fell to a negative balance of 29 percent with 42 percent of the firms surveyed reporting their books were below normal. Firm's exports' books also lie well below normal with a negative 17 percent balance. Profit margins were squeezed further over the month as prices for raw materials continued to outpace the falling prices of retail prices. Prices for finished goods are expected to continue falling for the next quarter, what would be the fourth consecutive quarter for a year that was originally forecast to experience growth. Input prices saw their biggest pressure from energy prices, which averaged above $61 a barrel for the month of August. The increased costs have remained the manufacturers' burden with output keeping stable as consumption keeping soft due to a *4 reading for consumer confidence.
Canadian Consumer Price Index (AUG)(11:00 GMT, 7:00 EDT)
Headline
Consensus: 0.5%
Previous: 0.2%
Excluding Core 8
Consensus: 0.1%
Previous: 0.0%
Outlook: Consumer prices for the month are anticipated to have risen, boosted by higher crude oil and energy prices. Confirming this notion, the core figure, which excludes gasoline, fruit and six other goods, looks to slightly rise above the unchanged figure witnessed last month. Although expected to rise 0.1 percent, the figure still reflects tamed inflation in the world's eighth largest economy. Subsequently, the figure may contribute to a near term pass on interest rates by Governor David Dodge compared to the 25 basis point hike decided on recently. Given that consumer spending has increased in the region along with pickups in sentiment and a currently thriving equity market, policy makers may be preventing the future rise in prices rather than accommodating to current conditions.
Previous: The Canadian CPI rose 2% from July 2004 to July 2005 and rose 0.2% in the monthly comparison. The main reason attributed to the increases was the price of gas, already higher by 40 percent in the yearly comparison. However, core CPI has risen 1.4% since last July and has remained the same between June and July of this year. The main contributors to the increase between July 2004 and July 2005 were homeowners replacement cost, which was higher 4.4%, property taxes that increased by 4.3% and restaurant meals, which increased 3.0%. The stability of the core CPI between June and July 2005 came from the downward movement of sales and leasing of automotive vehicles, which declined 1.7%. Upward pressure came from travel accommodations, restaurant meals, cable, and women's clothing.
Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.