The 90/10 Rule Of Trading |
By Price Headley |
Published
10/29/2008
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Currency , Futures , Options , Stocks
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Unrated
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The 90/10 Rule Of Trading
Tuesday's huge rally was the second best day ever, on a percentage basis, for the Dow. Bullish, right? Wait a second. Let's not forget when the best day ever was, back on October 13. After that best day ever, the Dow went on to new multi-year lows, falling a total of 13.2% from the October 13 close. So, if the best day ever wasn't a sure-fire sign of a recovery, why would the second best day ever be different?
We're not trying to be too much of a nay-sayer; we're just making a point. Don't start assuming things for no good reason. We've seen this kind of move before, to no avail.
Personally, I do think we're at or close to a bottom. That's got nothing to do with Tuesday's big pop though. That's entirely got to do with breadth and depth lately, though I somewhat argue the opposite below. In a nutshell, I think investors are simply running out of stocks to sell. If nobody's left to sell, then by default the buyers will take over the helm.
Of course, I'd be kidding myself and you if I said there weren't a lot of buyers just seeking some major values right now. Tuesday's volume was huge on the buying side of the table. In fact, it was the highest volume day in years, even bigger than the volume spike from October 10. That's a fairly meaningful sign of a transition from bearishness to bullishness.
My only problem, once again, the bulls came out of nowhere and just went berserk, leading to double digit gains. There was no pacing; it was all in one shot. As such, this is going to make it hard for any would be profit-takers to resist temptation and not sell into even just a little more strength. Maybe not Wednesday, but soon.
The only relief will be a mild cooling -- the sooner, the better. The scariest thing would be a bullish gap at the open. That's what we saw back on September 19, which jump-started a wave of selling, though there were other factors that kept the sell-off going. We could even afford to make gains on a close-to-close basis, if the market started low and then moved upward intraday. But, this overnight bullish sensation stuff has just been setting up pullbacks later in the same day. So, I'm not overly trusting that Tuesday's buyers will stand pat today.
Anyway, what I wanted to talk to you about was 90/10. No, this isn't some sort of variation of the 80/20 rule, though that's an important concept for traders too. The 90/10 concept I'm talking about has to do with breadth and depth.
Over the last several weeks, I've really dusted off some of my bottom-seeking indicators, one of which is the 90/10 rule. In short, the 90/10 rule simple says that a day following a severe sell-off where the volume is 90% bullish and where 90% of stocks move higher is likely a day where institutions are getting back into the game. Those are generally the coattails you want to follow.
Now, before we go any further, I want to tell you I know for a fact the principle is not always correct. However, I've also eye-balled the historical results, and the principle is sound most of the time. In other words, I'll certainly think about it, and probably use it.
As it turns out, Tuesday was NOT a 90/10 day. I couldn't believe it either. For volume it was an 87/13 day, and for breadth it was about a 70/30 day.
Frankly, I don't get it. How could any stock resist the bullish tide on Tuesday? The data is what it is though, and tells us that the bullish effort was not as perfect as a lot of us want to think it was.
Maybe it will be a 90/10 day today. All I know for sure is though, more than a few people were making their way out of stocks on Tuesday while most traders were making their way in.
I'd like to know what those sellers know. I hope it's not something we all should know, but don't.
The only caveat to the whole idea is a big one. These are downright bizarre times for the market. I've never seen stocks stay this volatile for this long. So, if there was ever an exception to the rule, this is probably the time for it. If you're a strict adherer to these rules of thumb though, then Tuesday was almost a game-changer for you.
Let's see if there's any healthy follow-through. Given the situation, I think two or three 80/20 days are as good as one 90/10 day. On the other hand, it wasn't good enough back on September 19 or on October 13. We saw 80/20-ish around those dates, but the sellers still prevailed. Maybe the third attempt will get the job done.
Price Headley is the founder and chief analyst of BigTrends.com.
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