Corcoran Technical Trading Patterns For October 30 |
By Clive Corcoran |
Published
10/30/2008
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Stocks
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Unrated
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Corcoran Technical Trading Patterns For October 30
It is hard to keep track of the ever-expanding extent of national government and supra-national bailouts. Just some that I could mention, but many more that have probably slipped my attention, are:
The UK government appears to stand ready to shovel credit the way of any small business owner that comes through one of the partly nationalized bank's front door.
The IMF is hastily rescuing numerous economies on the global economic periphery which have dubious credit standings to put it mildly (not that a dodgy credit rating has been an issue in recent times in the developed world either).
The Russian government has put together a $6 billion rescue package for its most stressed billionaire oligarchs (some of whom could be down to their last few billions).
In the US many regional banks and auto companies that surely have reached their sell-by dates look likely to be in receipt of publicly contributed funds.
The next priority must surely be to bail out the struggling developers of some fabulous extravaganzas in Las Vegas that are clearly of strategic national interest.
At some point the ongoing bailout of private enterprise will bring about a bale out from government debt securities.
In the equity markets the cheerleaders are suggesting we look across the valley to the future earnings growth that is likely to re-emerge with all of this stimulative government intervention.
If one is consistent, bond traders should be looking across that same valley and getting increasingly uncomfortable that additional supply, the ubiquity of cheap short-term money and a rekindled commodity sector cannot be good for bond prices.
The DJIA could see a re-test of the 10,000 level while the bears sit on the sidelines waiting for re-entry opportunities.
On the Nasdaq 100 (^NDX) the intraday high from October 14 and the 38% retracement of the June/October high low suggests that the 1500 area could be another area where the bears will lie in wait.
Looking at the Nikkei's performance in Thursday's trading, one could be forgiven for thinking that last week's plunge to a 26-year low was just a momentary aberration (or more cynically a reminder of the notion that gained traction in the 1990's that the Japanese were always clumsy sellers).
As with the DJIA, the 10,000 level would seem to be a feasible short-term target.
The suggestion in Tuesday's column that CHRW could be ready to break out from an upwards wedge pattern which had been evolving could have allowed an attractive return over the last two sessions.
Also worth repeating is the suggestion given on Tuesday morning regarding 3M - (MMM) has managed to recover fairly steadily since October 10 but could face resistance from the 50-day EMA. A buy and reverse strategy at $65 may be worth consideration.
Yesterday's intraday high fell just 2 cents short of that target.
One of the sector funds for utilities stocks, UTH, is looking as though it is preparing for an upward move.
One further recent suggestion was to keep an eye on the exchange traded fund UUP, which represents a bull view on the US dollar index, for a possible topping action. The call was a little early but there could still be further rewards as it would not be surprising to see this fund retreat to the arrow indicated on the chart below.
Clive Corcoran is the publisher of TradeWithForm.com, which provides daily analysis and commentary on the US stock market. He specializes in market neutral investing and and is currently working on a book about the benefits of trading with long/short strategies, which is scheduled for publication later this year.
Disclaimer The purpose of this article is to offer you the chance to review the trading methodology, risk reduction strategies and portfolio construction techniques described at tradewithform.com. There is no guarantee that the trading strategies advocated will be profitable. Moreover, there is a risk that following these strategies will lead to loss of capital. Past results are no guarantee of future results. Trading stocks and CFD's can yield large rewards, but also has large potential risks. Trading with leverage can be especially risky. You should be fully aware of the risks of trading in the capital markets. You are strongly advised not to trade with capital.
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