Given the mounting fears of a global recession, indicators of economic growth have been drawing quite a bit of attention lately. As a result, the release of Euro-zone Q3 GDP and US retail sales along with speeches by Fed Chairman Bernanke and ECB President Trichet are sure to make the headlines and spur volatility in the forex markets this week.

German ZEW Survey (NOV) – November 11

The German ZEW survey of economic sentiment, a gauge of investor confidence, is forecasted to hold steady at -63.0 for the month of November. However, given the sharp economic slowdown and persistent financial market instability that led the European Central Bank to cut rates by 50 basis points to 3.25 percent on November 6, there is potential for this index to fall lower and perhaps even reach a new low, as the current record low of -63.9 was set just this past July (records go back to 1991). This 5:00 ET release tends to be a very short-term market mover for the euro, with disappointing results likely to lead the currency lower upon release while a surprisingly strong number could provide it with a brief boost.

UK Jobless Claims (OCT), Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report – November 12

Jobless claims in the UK are anticipated to rise for the ninth consecutive month in October, adding to evidence that the combination of a slowing global economy, sharp declines in domestic consumption, and the continuous collapse of the UK housing sector are bound to make the UK economic contraction extend for a lengthy amount of time. Indeed, the jobless claims change is anticipated to rise by 40K, the largest single-month gain since 1992, and while this could impact the British pound upon release at 4:30 ET, the announcement of the Bank of England’s Quarterly Inflation Report may be more important. Given the BOE’s latest policy statement following their aggressive 150 basis point rate cut, it appears that the Monetary Policy Committee is now more concerned about the potential for deflation, and if the Inflation Report confirms this outlook, the news could trigger a large British pound sell-off.

Euro-zone GDP (3Q A), CPI (OCT) – November 14

Over the past year, the release of Euro-zone CPI drew significant attention and sparked major volatility for the euro. However, indicators of growth have become more important as of late, as the European Central Bank has shifted its focus away from inflation and on to the global, and regional, economic slowdown. As a result, when both Euro-zone Q3 GDP and Euro-zone CPI for the month of October hit the wires at 5:00 ET, the former may get a bit more attention. Why? This will be the advanced reading of Q3 GDP and is forecasted to slump 0.2 percent from the previous quarter and as the second consecutive period of contraction, would fit the popular definition of recession (being two consecutive quarters of negative growth). Such data would only raise the odds that the European Central Bank will move to cut rates again at their next meeting on December 4, and if CPI drops in line with or more than forecasts to 3.2 percent from 3.6 percent, the news will only add insult to injury and could trigger sharp losses for the euro.

US Advance Retail Sales (OCT) – November 14

The 8:30 ET release of Advance Retail Sales is expected to show that the index fell for the fourth month in a row in October, with consensus forecasts by Bloomberg News calling for a 2.0 percent decline. According to the latest report from the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC), sales actually contracted 0.9 percent in October from a year earlier, marking the first negative result since March 2008 and the worst reading since April 2007. Looking at a breakdown of the report, apparel and department store sales both fell roughly 11 percent from a year earlier while the luxury component tumbled 19.2 percent. Even discount and wholesale clubs sales slowed to a significantly weaker pace, suggesting that consumers are cutting back severely on spending across the board. Clearly, there’s quite a bit of downside risk for this particular Advance Retail Sales release, with disappointing readings likely to lead the US dollar lower for at least a brief time, though if risk trends remain in play, flight-to-safety could actually lead the “safe haven” currency higher.

Fed Chairman Bernanke, ECB President Trichet Speak at ECB Conference in Frankfurt – November 14

After the release of US Advance Retail Sales, traders should watch out for speeches issued by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, as comments by these two men tend to be extremely market-moving for not only currencies, but bonds and equities as well. If the central bank chiefs issue bearish rhetoric, the news could weigh heavily on carry trades and propel low-yielding currencies like the US dollar and Japanese yen higher.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.