It's nearly Thanksgiving, which means the year is winding down. This has been an historic year for the markets. You can draw comparisons to the Great Depression, but haven't we progressed from those days? Aren't we much smarter, experienced and sensible? How can history constantly repeat itself without lessons learned? It seems we are doomed by repeating the mistakes of our ancestors. Greed of course, does not disappear from generation to generation. Human nature is about collection and the highest count, and even the least competitive among us will still try. I am hopeful better days are around the corner soon, but I know that it's probably further off into the future. Maybe we can learn from our recent mistakes so as to not face such turmoil again.

The Bear Market Has Not Even Begun to Deliver the Pain

We can look back at all the bear markets in the past and see many similar qualities, but these should be considered random events or data points. Why random? Well, bear markets are not planned...they just happen during market cycles. We analyze data and the quality of the bear so we can help determine the length and severity. Make no mistake, bear markets are not the same. Oh sure, they all feel painful and severe. This particular bear market is not even close to being finished, for instance. How do I know this? Sellers are not anywhere near finished, and buyers are nowhere to be found. Cycle lows are targetted 15-20% lower by many, which means much more downside from here. Every test of the lows makes for a weaker hold and likely downside followthrough.

The Bulls Will Return Again

While the doom and gloom is thick and effervescent, we can take comfort that markets are cyclical and will eventually come around. A crash of historical proportions is usually followed by an explosive rally, and we'll get one at some point. But I urge caution as the sellers continue to hit the bid each day, don't be lulled into a sense of complacency or bottom fishing. Those on wallstreet will tell you to do this, and never having been in this type of hailstorm before, that is clearly irrational and inappropriate. Be in charge of your funds, protect precious capital and be ready to load with guns ablazin' at the next go around. It's not here yet, though.

Price Headley is the founder and chief analyst of BigTrends.com.