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Top FX Market Movers: Euro Domination Over Major Movers
By John Kicklighter | Published  09/26/2005 | Currency | Unrated
Top FX Market Movers: Euro Domination Over Major Movers

AUD/CAD

Dearth Of Economic Data:  With no economic data for the session, traders turned to the overall economic outlook in trading the cross currency pair.  With that said, traders first and foremost took notice of significant option barriers at the 0.7550 figure with Asian buyers contributing to a slight rebound by midday.  However, with energy prices rising once again in light of minimal damage attributed to Hurricane Rita, global demand and expansion remain at risk contributing to the counter currency.  Subsequent stops below at 0.7540/50 in the major Aussie could cause further downside in the cross.

Crude Oil Rebounds: Although pulling back earlier in the day, crude oil contracts traded higher once again.  Although, as mentioned above, minimal damage was witnessed in the Gulf region, the hurricane was able to close 16 oil refineries in the Texas region.   As a result, analysts are warning that such outages look to contribute to a supply disruption as we head into the winter season.  As a result, traders bid the commodity higher by 2.2 percent to $1.41 to $65.60 a barrel.

Technically Speaking:  Hitting the intrasession bottom, the cross currency looks to be rebounding, albeit slightly, off of bottomside channel support as we head into the Asian session.  Confirming the turn, stochastic is experiencing a golden cross to the upside with the first ceiling test at 0.8910, the 23.6 percent fib level from the three day move.

EUR/AUD

In Spite Of Political Upheaval: With both German elections and the debacle of Prime Minister versus Central Bank Governor in the nation of Italy, a lot of downside pressure still exists for the EURAUD currency cross.  With the major currency subject to most of the suppressed action, the slight bounce seen in the U.S. session translated into a rise higher for the currency cross. 

Central Bank Interest:  With the underlying spot approaching the $1.2000 figure support, traders took advantage of the increasing buying interest expressed by central banks at that level.  Additionally, riddled with entry orders, the underlying spot price tripped long initiatives bumping the major EURUSD currency pair higher.  The move translated into a rise in Euro denominations.

Technically Speaking:  Bouncing off of the confluence between the 50 percent Fibonacci level and the bottomside support trendline, the EURAUD has broken through both fib levels to the upside, including the 38.2 and 23.6 percent fib levels.  However, consolidation looks to be occurring above the latter as the move has been exhausted.

EUR/CAD

Similar in Fashion:  Similar to the above mentioned EURAUD, the EURCAD currency cross looks to have established near term support at the 1.4100 figure, rising incrementally higher.  However, unlike the currency cross, overall Canadian dollar favoritism has grown with rising energy prices in midday trading.

Carry Trade Notions:  With energy prices rising again and a booming equities market, sentiment still remains of near term interest rate hike considerations by Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge.  If implemented this would widen the spread between interest rates in the euro zone and the world's eighth largest economy.  Notably, adding another 25 basis points would increase the current benchmark rate 33 percent in value over the short term euro rate.

Technically Speaking:  Hovering below the confluence of the 1.4200 figure and upside resistance, the cross looks to be headed for a failed test, but not before some considerable growth ensues.  Confirming the latter notion looks to be the golden cross in the stochastic.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.