• German Gfk Consumer Confidence
• U.K. Gross Domestic Product
• Swiss KOF Leading Indicators
• U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Report
• U.S. Durable Goods Orders
• New Zealand Gross Domestic Product
• Japanese Retail Trade

German Gfk Consumer Confidence (SEP) (6:00 GMT, 2:00 EDT)
Consensus: N/A
Previous: 3.4%

Outlook: With September economic figures relatively mixed, consumers may be slightly more pessimistic this time around, especially with political indecision looming over the economy. Contributing to the lower possibility, the Zew survey of economic data checked in at 38.6, far lower than the previous 50 reading. Additionally, consumer prices rose faster than expected, up 0.4 percent on a month-over-month basis versus a 0.2 percent consensus. Rising 0.1 percent in the previous month, the rise looked to be suggestive of increased spending but was more reflective of rising commodity prices. Comparatively, the sole attributor to a potential rise looks to be rising consumer interests on speculation of near term interest rate increases with manufacturers even becoming increasingly optimistic of future prospects.

Previous: Gfk consumer confidence, a leading-edge indicator of consumer spending, rose 3.4 percent in August from 3.2 percent in July, the first increase in five months. Shoppers grew more optimistic leading up to the September 18th chancellor election with polls at the time showing incumbent Gerhard Shroeder losing to challenger Angela Merkel. In light of a relatively high unemployment rate of 11.6 percent, record oil prices and a slow economy, voters remained mildly optimistic that the Christian Democrats proposed tax reform would strengthen the economy following an electoral victory.

UK Gross Domestic Product (2Q 3) (8:30 GMT, 4:30 EDT)
Consensus: 0.5% (QoQ); 1.8% (YoY)
Previous: 0.4% (QoQ); 2.1% (YoY)

Outlook: With the manufacturing sector in recession, shrinking by 0.3 percent in the second quarter (revised up from 0.7 percent), the UK economy is relying on the service sector to support economic growth. Consumer spending increased 0.2 percent in the second quarter following a 0.1 percent increase in the first quarter. The service sector, which accounts for three quarters of UKs economy, faces uncertainty with the housing price boom fading and crude oil continuing to rise to record highs following a wave of hurricanes in the gulf coast. Most economists see 2005 growth of 2 percent, in line with Bank of England estimates but well short of the 3 percent increase previously predicted by Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown last March.

Previous: The UK economy was originally reported to have expanded at 0.4 percent quarterly rate, 2.1 percent on an annualized comparison, in the second quarter. However, these figures were later revised upward to 0.5 percent and downward to 1.8 percent respectively during a second revision on August 26th. In early August, the Bank of England lowered benchmark rates 25 basis points to 4.5 percent in a narrow 5 to 4 vote as a slowdown in consumer spending concerned proponents of the move. However, with consumer spending still sluggish, coupled with thin conditions in production and manufacturing, further time may be needed for the rate cut to work its way into Europes second largest economy.

KOF Swiss Leading Indicator (SEP) (9:30 GMT, 5:30 EDT)
Consensus: 0.70
Previous: 0.71

Outlook: Leading indicators are expected to remain stagnant from August to September with an average economic prediction of 0.70 versus 0.71 in the previous month. The economic outlook for Switzerland is considerably optimistic. There has been an upward trend in the indicators over the past few months, which economists believe can be maintained. Additionally, recently positive figures have been released for industrial production, retail sales and foreign trade. The country is continuing to pull away from its brush with recession in the first quarter of the year on all fronts. However, these positive releases are being thwarted by the larger burden placed on spending by record high oil prices. The Swiss Franc also rose against the dollar this month with to investors becoming more risk averse due to the hurricanes and looking for shelter in the relatively safer Swiss currency. Although this has not hurt Swiss exports, they have not been able to grow as strongly as in the past few months.

Previous: The leading indicator rose to 0.71 in August from 0.64 in July, the highest level in 11 months, far outpacing expectations of a rise to 0.58. This was the fourth consecutive rise. Switzerland began its trial of recovering from its economic slump, carrying its largest trade surplus in at least 30 years, due to a sharp rise in foreign demand. The 10 percent drop in the Swiss Franc against the Dollar this year additionally fueled demand for exports, which account for nearly half of the countries economy. Additionally visible, Swiss manufacturing and construction continue to expand.

CBI Distributive Trades Report (SEP) (10:00 GMT, 6:00 EDT)
Consensus: -17
Previous: -18

Outlook: As a part of Augusts survey results, only 20% of retailers surveyed by the Confederation of British Industry in August felt that sales volumes would increase in September while a whopping 51% had forecast a decline. As such, the balance reporting sales volumes increase is expected to come in at a weak -17 for the month of September. The British housing market continues to slow down as home value appreciation fell to just 2.3% in August. It is likely, therefore, that hardware, furniture, and home electronic sale volumes will be weak in September just as they were in August and will weigh in heavily on overall retail sales volumes. Since the burst of the UK housing bubble last year, British consumers have felt less wealthy on the whole and have curbed spending. The slight 1% gain in the balance from August will probably be an effect of the BoEs rate cut last month, which may have encourage spending.

Previous: A balance of 18% of retailers reported falling sales volumes in the United Kingdom for August, according to the CBIs Distributive Trades Report, reflecting a difficult summer for retailers. The countrys underlying annual sales trend was at its weakest in 22 years. Only 27% of retailers surveyed by the CBI reported an increase in sales. The decline is particularly disheartening light of the measures taken by retailers including considerable price discounting and a longer than usual summer sales season. A lethargic housing market had significant impact on the decreasing volume. Because housing prices have not been appreciating dramatically, homeowners have experienced a blow to their perceived wealth. In addition, a slow market also means that many do-it-yourself hardware items, furniture, flooring and carpeting, and household electronic items have taken a hit in sales. British wholesalers, however, are fairing slightly better with volumes and prices continuing to experience long-term growth as averages remain above the normal levels of previous years.

US Durable Goods Orders (AUG) (12:30 GMT, 8:30AM EST)
Consensus: 0.7%
Previous: -4.9%

Outlook: Augusts data is expected to show a modest 0.7% increase in durable goods orders following Julys fall, which was the largest in a year and a half. The civilian aircraft component will most likely hold steady this month since Boeing received 90 orders in August compared to Julys 88. On the consumer side, theres downside risk from the University of Michigans report of a sharp fall in sentiment to 89.1 from 96.5 in light of high oil prices and after a smaller increase in payrolls in the month combined with declining real hourly earnings. However, the Conference Boards survey of consumer confidence actually reported a slight rebound in the month from 103.6 to 105.5. In any case, orders will probably only get worse in September due to the destruction caused by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. The rebuilding efforts following the two storms will give a boost as firms and consumers must replace lost goods. Unfortunately, this effect probably wont take hold for another few months.

Previous: After May and Junes hefty upward surprises to durable goods orders, July finally brought a larger-than-expected retracement along with some upwards revisions to data from prior months. Total new orders for durable goods dropped 4.9% against economists median expectation of a 1.5% fall. As expected, there was a decline in transportation, which amounted to a change of -8.3%. However, machinery and computers/electronics also experienced sizeable new order decreases of 6.2% and 5.9%, respectively. On top of all this, capital spending in the month was weak with a 3.7% decline in orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft. One positive note is that in May and June, new orders exceeded shipments by $14,2 billion, signaling that there are enough orders in the pipeline to prevent any drastic drop in output in the near future despite Julys weak performance in orders.

New Zealand GDP (QoQ) (2Q) (22:45 GMT, 18:45 EDT)
Consensus: .7%
Previous: .6%

Outlook: The rate of growth in New Zealands Gross Domestic Product is likely to have increased to .7% in the second quarter. The countrys near record low unemployment rate of 3.7% along with the appreciating value of homes has encouraged consumer spending. Because consumer spending accounts for 60% of New Zealands economy, any increase in spending is likely to bring a smaller rise in the countrys GDP growth. The greatest contributor to economic growth is likely to be the construction sector, which has seen a 19% surge in non-residential construction. In spite of the second quarters expected growth acceleration, a slowdown is expected to continue in the rest of the year. This is largely because exports, which account for 30% of the economy, are lagging far behind the countrys imports at the hands of extremely high interest rates and a strong New Zealand Dollar.

Previous: The growth of New Zealands GDP came in at .6% for the first quarter. While a growth of .6% was markedly higher than the .3% growth that occurred in the fourth quarter of the previous year, it fell short of the .8% growth predicted by many economists. Alan Bollard, Governor of New Zealands Reserve Bank, had an even more ambitious growth estimate of 1% for the quarter. The lower than expected GDP growth rate occurred in spite of the countrys first gain in construction in three quarters. Slipping exports are the biggest culprit in the poor economic growth. Record high interest rates of 6.75%, the highest of any country with a top credit rating, have brought the New Zealand Dollar immense strength internationally. As a result, New Zealands exports have become increasingly less attractive, hampering the countrys overall economic growth.

Japanese Retail Trade (YoY) (AUG) (23:50 GMT, 19:50 EDT)
Consensus: 0.6%
Previous: 0.6%%

Outlook: Japanese retail sales are expected to rise by 0.6 percent in the month of August compared to a 2.2 percent decline in the previous period. However, leaning to the downside, announced a few days ago, was a 0.7 percent decline in Japanese department store sales for the month, a turnaround from the 1.1 percent rise in July. Additionally, Tokyo department store sales for August fell 6.1 percent in the annualized comparison. Despite these less-than-positive announcements, overall retail trade is expected to rise a bit due to improving economic conditions in the region. Although recent data has not been as encouraging to the notion, wage growth has been to the upside along with a domestic equities market that is adding continued value for domestic investors. All that is needed now is tangible proof that consumers are indeed ready to accommodate their spending habits.

Previous: Retail sales in Japan rose 0.6 percent in July from a year earlier, the fifth consecutive month of annualized gains. The announcement did however fall far below the expectations of a 2.5 percent rise. The monthly retail sales figure fell 2.2 percent (seasonally adjusted) from June to July. The aforementioned rise was aided by continually rising oil prices and heavy sales of mens clothing. Household spending dropped however, expected to rise by 1 percent. Potentially contributing to the below estimate showing, unemployment also unexpectedly rose during the month, keeping the rise in sales much lower than was predicted as less disposable income was afforded to consumers.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.