Energies
A big surge on weather and OPEC concerns sent the energy complex to fresh highs for the year.  After Thursday's inventory data the market has retraced a bit, but lacked the fallout needed for the bears to discount the run.  I am not an energy bull at these prices.  I am not an energy bull if crude tests the contract highs.  I am not an energy bull if we break to new highs.  This market is facing an inability, given the current fundamental structure, to maintain these prices.  Buy put spreads for May and beyond and thank me later.

Financials
After a breakdown early in the holiday week, stocks have rebounded in a resounding manner to give the bulls something to cheer about over the weekend.  I am torn here, with a bearish long term outlook but a short term technical picture that sure looks like new highs will come next week.  If we resist out below 1220 this market won't know what to do with itself.  GDP today was an excuse and something underlying the market is secretly pushing this higher.  I remain a buyer of puts for the ultimate collapse.  The long bond is reeling from Greenspan's comments and should suffer additional selloffs in the weeks and months ahead.  The US dollar is extremely oversold and I remain the sole remaining cheerleader for a bounce.  The dollar above 8500 is true and right, and the market should have us there in the next month or so if my comments are worth the paper they are written on.  The euro is a strong sell and the Canadian should set new lows before Easter. 

Grains
Beans continued to impress with a test of $6 before the weekend.  South American dry weather, a decent squeeze and concerns over rust in the US has this market looking like a bull in the making.  Be forewarned - this rally is way ahead of itself, and while even a move to $7 is possible, it won't hold up without a major fundamental change.  This feels more like pre-season jitters and less like a legit play.  I highly recommend scaling out or exiting long bean and wheat plays at these prices and shifting to ratio call spreads to play against the current volatility spike.  Look at May wheat - long 320s and short two or three 350 calls for a good play.  Beans offer similar spread benefits, but corn is a trailer and I would remain a value player there with futures (puts as protection) - offering a good hedge against the ratio plays.

Meats
A break of trend line support in cattle left me rooting for the collapse, but it flat lined.  A nice bear flag in the making and this thing should explode to the downside if the time is now - which my gut says it is and it's long overdue.  Short futures and buy puts/sell calls - mortgage the farm.

Metals
Gold failed to impress this week, despite excessive downward pressure in the dollar.  Look for a dollar bounce and gold plunge, with silver already showing signs of leading the way.  Copper may be one to avoid, but a 1500 point down day (like the other two we saw recently) wouldn't be a shocker.

Softs
Coffee volatility is getting impressive, and giving warning signs that something very big is about to happen.  As much as my coffee bull play has been dead on here for a while, my gut says lighten up or define the risk because it could really go either way for the next few weeks.  I like a long futures play with two puts as protection for May or even July if you want to spend the premium.  The physical squeeze in coffee is legit and global and it is just seems like you can smell a country about to jump ship (Vietnam?) on the squeeze play.  Cocoa looks bullish but the gut says it's a trap and sell calls on bounces.  Sugar offered us a volatility explosion this week as technical trading got this best of this market and the sideways action is over.  Buy strangles and strap in your seatbelt.  A bear technical break this week needs immediate follow through on Monday to get legs, otherwise this could be the chop before the big run higher.  Cotton may look like a late play similar to coffee and OJ's run, but you are getting trapped in my opinion if you play this long - buy puts and be a small spec contrarian.  Lumber is just a tired market for me.  Look at a monthly, go short with me - just have a little patience for once.

James Mound, owner of JMTG Brokerage LLC, MoundReport.com and author of the book 7 Secrets, writes the Weekend Commodities Review Newsletter. Receive your free weekly subscription to the Weekend Review by e-mail. Click here