Are New Stock Sector Leaders Emerging? |
By Price Headley |
Published
12/28/2008
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Stocks
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Unrated
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Are New Stock Sector Leaders Emerging?
I'll let the charts do most of the talking today. In a nutshell, the last few weeks have been different than the marketwide selloff we experienced in October and November. In October and November, no sector or industry was immune to the selling. In the last month or so, however, we're starting to see leaders and laggards immerge. Or are we? That's the theory anyway. A disparity should mean opportunities are starting to pop up on both sides of the market, but before we start counting any chickens, let's just make sure they're hatched.
Still, the bigger question is which, if any, groups are emerging bullishly, and which groups are still sinking? The answer lies in the visual aspect of a couple of charts. All charts tell a story, but when comparing two or more sectors to one another, it's difficult to make an apples-to-apples comparison. To start all sectors at the same baseline is the only way to do that fairly.
So, the charts below compare the percentage returns for the major sectors in two timeframes -- the last twelve months, and the last few weeks. The idea is to spot new, emerging trends, and how that might be a change in the longer-term trend.
Long-Term (52 weeks) Comparative Sector Performance
Short-Term (25 days) Comparative Sector Performance
One thing sticks out immediately. The new emerging leader theory isn't exactly holding water. Though everything's up since mid-November, nothing is really up for the last week or so. So right off the bat, I think we need to temper any optimism.
Bigger picture, I think financials still have the most upside potential, though I also think they're still the biggest risk. Personally, I'm betting on them, but I'm keeping them on a short leash.
The other mostly-clear reality is that utilities aren't all that attractive right now. I find that a little surprising considering how dividend-payers are coming back into focus. But, the chart doesn't lie. There are other ideas and hints between these charts as well, but I'll let you draw your own conclusions.
I know that last week makes things look pretty dismal all around, but I suspect if we updated this chart a week from now, we'd see at least some of these sectors on the rise again. So, don't get too worried about the last week. This is movie, not a snapshot.
Price Headley is the founder and chief analyst of BigTrends.com.
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