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Worse Than '29
By Bill Bonner | Published  12/29/2008 | Currency , Futures , Options , Stocks | Unrated
Worse Than '29

Now, the days dwindle down to a precious few. And if some miracle doesn't happen this will go down as the worst year in Wall Street history.

Worse than '29? Yes…a lot worse.

1929 had been a big winner for investors before the crash began in the last quarter. When the champagne was finally poured on New Year's Eve, investors were less than 10% below where they began the year.

This year has been all bad. Investors are looking at a loss over 40%. The typical investor in the stock market has probably lost half his money.

The news continues to confirm that a major correction is underway.

Comes word this morning that Kuwait has cancelled a $9 billion joint venture with Dow Chemical…and that steel production is dropping fast.

Student loans are becoming a "crushing burden," says the LA Times. When things were moving in the right direction, paying off a student loan seemed like a cinch. But when the only job you can get pays only $20,000 a year…it's hard to start out life with $50,000 in student loans. At 7% interest, that's $3,500 a year…plus, if the poor young fellow wants to be debt free in 10 years, he's got to pay another $5,000 of the principle each year. That will cost him about $700 a month. Let's hope he doesn't have to eat…pay the rent…or buy a car.

After a great bubble of consumer debt comes the crushing burden of having to pay it back.

Even churches are getting their steeples knocked off. Poor St. Andrews. The Anglican church of Easton, Maryland, had only 35 members. If you haven't followed the schism news, we will bring you up-to-date. The Episcopalians have become very hip and trendy; at least, they think they have. They perform gay marriage ceremonies…Christ, they say, is "a way," not "the way."

Naturally, many Episcopalians are looking for another way. Some have found the Anglican Church - essentially the same religion, but presided over by different authorities. Thus did a little group of Anglicans in Easton, Maryland, come to need a place to assemble for worship. And thus did they take on $900,000 of loans to buy an unused old church. But unless some among them had deep pockets, the pilgrims were doomed from the beginning. Each of the members had to pay about $2,000 a year just to pay the mortgage. And when the mortgage payments weren't met, the lenders repossessed the church, leaving the parishioners out in the cold.

*** "Turn the lights out when you leave the room…there's a worldwide financial meltdown…" we reminded the children yesterday.

"Dad," Jules took the bait, "you keep talking about this worldwide financial meltdown. But I was just in the U.S. last week. I didn't notice anything different. There weren't any soup lines. People didn't seem to be suffering. And even if there were a worldwide financial meltdown, I don't see how will it make any difference in my life."

"Jules, so far, we've only seen the very first part of this meltdown. It has only affected investors. And even investors don't believe it is serious problem. They expect next year to be better.

"What we've seen so far is just 1929 - but worse. The real damage…the real pain…is still ahead…those grim years of the '30s. In 1931, stocks fell another 50%. Then in 1937, they went down about 35%. And unemployment reached 25% - one out of every 4 people couldn't get a job.

"And back then, people had much more of a margin of safety. Much of the population was still living on farms. They might not have had any money, but they still had their own produce they could eat. They were used to gardening…canning food for the winter and making do without a lot of money. And many of them still heated with wood.

"Now, the typical household needs a job in order to eat. No, they need two jobs. They don't have gardens. They don't know how to can food…or how to dress a pig. They have bills to pay - not just food, but mortgages, insurance, student loans, health care, gasoline, car payments. Today, usually, both husband and wife work…and they've increased their expenses to the point where if they lose either job they're soon going to run out of money.

"One thing that is almost sure to happen - the workforce is bound to shrink. People are going to leave the world of employment in order to stay at home, take care of children, cook their own meals, and so forth. They may even put in wood stoves and plant a garden.

"In the '30s, people still had private safety nets. They had stockpiles of money…food…fuel. They could last at least for a while without jobs. Now, we have public safety nets. People can't last long without jobs, but we have unemployment insurance…food stamps…and so forth. These public systems cost a lot of money. It will be interesting to see what happens to them when they are put under the strain of a major meltdown. The government will probably end up just sending people checks. It's the fastest and cheapest way to get money into circulation.

"As for what difference it will make to you…well, when you get out of school in May you'll probably find it a lot harder to get a job than you would have a year ago…and if you wanted a job on Wall Street, you'd probably be out of luck all together. And if you're able to get a job, it probably won't pay as much as you had hoped…and you won't be able to spend as much money. Or, maybe you won't get a job at all…and you'll have to come and live at home with us. That would be nice for your mother and me, but you may not like it so much."

Bill Bonner is the President of Agora Publishing. For more on Bill Bonner, visit The Daily Reckoning.