1. Australian Retail Sales
2. Euro zone Consumer Price Index * Flash Estimate
3. GfK Consumer Confidence
4. U.S. Personal Income / Personal Consumption Expenditure
5. U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers Index
6. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey

Australian Retail Sales (Aug)(1:30GMT, 21:30 EDT)
Consensus: 0.3%
Previous: 0.0%

Outlook: Retail sales for August are expected to have grown 0.3 percent after remaining stagnant in July.  Australia's economy began to pick up in August growing at a 1.3 percent annual pace, the fastest pace since the end of 2003.  Additionally, the jobless rate is at a 29-year low of 5 percent and employers are hiring at continually faster rates.  Subsequently on higher labor demand, wages grew 4 percent in the second quarter, the highest increase since the statistics bureau began recording in 1997.  Consumer confidence also jumped to a 6 month high in August.  The government put more money in consumers' hands as well by beginning to cut income taxes in July with further plans to cut taxes by A$21.7 billion over the next four years. 

Previous: After rising in the two previous months, retail sales for July unexpectedly stalled.  Retail department store sales fell 1 percent from June to July and sales at recreational goods stores dropped 1.7 percent during the same period. The recent stall can be mostly attributed to the tremendous growth in oil prices through the beginning of the season placing increasing pressure on consumer retail spending in the economy.  The Commonwealth Bank estimated that households were spending 25 percent more on gasoline in July than they were at the beginning of 2005.  Additionally, the slowdown may also be attributed to the continuing effects of the Reserve Bank of Australia raising its overnight interest rate target to 5.5 percent in March, the highest rate since 2001.

Euro-zone CPI * Flash Estimate (Sep)(9:00GMT, 5:00EDT)
Previous: 2.4%
Previous: 2.2%

Outlook:  Economists expect that the upward trend of inflation will continue in September with an estimate at 2.4%.  Lower summer seasonal prices, especially in clothing and food, will rise back up to normal in September.  Oil prices continue to be the driving upward force of inflation for September being that inflation excluding energy and food costs seems to be mostly unmoved.  Inflation in individual EU countries has been growing over the past few months and is expected to continue through September. German inflation figures released on Monday unexpectedly jumped to 2.5 percent in September, rising from 1.9 percent in August * the highest increase in four years. 

Previous:  The rise in consumer prices during August was lower than the expected 2.2 percent falling slightly to 2.1 percent from the 2.2 percent in July.  It is suggested that high energy prices had placed a downward pressure on other prices due to shrinking consumer spending and confidence.  The number also may have been lower than expected for seasonal reasons with prices of food and clothing lower.  Tight consumer spending has kept stores running their summer clothing sales for longer than the regular season bringing overall prices lower for an extended period.  There was also a high comparison base from August 2004, which may have raised expectations.

GfK Consumer Confidence (Sep)(9:30GMT, 5:30EDT)
Consensus: -4
Previous: -4

Outlook: After dropping more than expected in August, British consumer confidence is expected to remain stagnant for September at -4.  The economy is continuing to suffer during this month and consumer spending continues to slow.  Retail sales are predicted to be lower or stagnant across all sectors for the month and housing prices fell for the second month in a row.  The British economy is growing at a 1.5 percent annualized pace this year versus the predicted 1.8 percent.  Subsequently, the Finance Minister has announced that growth for the third quarter will most likely be similar to the second quarter * low and below expectations.  The slowing of the economy is wearing on consumers' spending and confidence, but despite all the negative news, there has not been anything currently significant to spark another major drop this month.

Previous: British consumer confidence fell to its lowest release since October 2004 in August.  The index fell to -4 from -1 in July failing to meet economists' expectations of a stagnant reading from July to August.  Consumer spending dropped for the 6th straight month in August despite the Bank of England's attempt to revive the economy with an interest rate reduction.  The survey was weighed down mainly by a fading view of the strength in Great Britain's economy - an index of people's perception of the economy fell from -18 in July to -24 in August * as well as waning confidence that it is a good time to make major purchases. 

U.S. Personal Income and Consumption Expenditure (AUG)(12:30GMT, 8:30EDT)

Personal Income
Consensus: 0.3%
Previous: 0.3%

Personal Consumption Expenditure
Consensus:  -0.2%
Previous:  1.0%

Outlook: U.S. personal income is expected to rise by 0.3% for the month of August as businesses continue to take home higher profits.  Incomes attached to real estate transactions will be the largest contributor to this gain as home values continue to rise.  Unlike last month, however, this increase in wages and salaries is likely to be matched by a positive gain in savings as personal consumption expenditure (PCE) is expected to decline by 0.2%.  This will be the first fall in spending in 3 months and the biggest drop since June 2004.  Consumers will be cutting expenditure on nonessential items to cover the soaring cost of energy, especially after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita have put a large number of critical refineries out of commission.  In contrast to last month, when automobile sales lead spending, car purchases look to be weak for the month of August as large-scale destruction of the gulf coast has pushed fuel prices impossibly high. 

Previous: Personal Income rose at a rate of .3% in July, intensely fueled by rising home values and a strong equities market.  The increase had its greatest effect in the private sector, where wages and salaries increased by $29.4 billion as opposed to a climb of only $17.9 billion the previous month.  Employment rates had much to do with the overall increase in income, as weekly initial jobless claims were below average for the entire month.  Increased income in July, however, did not result in increased savings.  In fact, the personal savings rate fell to a record low of -0.6%.  This was due to the 1% gain in PCE.  A large contributor to the rise in spending was car sales as consumers flooded showrooms to take advantage of steep automobile discounts.  In fact, demand at car and parts dealers soared 6.7%.  The last time demand for automobiles was so high was in October of 2001 when auto manufacturers were offering zero-interest loans to boost sales after the attacks of September 11th. 

US Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (Sep)(14:00GMT, 10:00EDT)
Consensus: 51.0
Previous: 49.2

Outlook: The Chicago PMI is expected to increase to 51.0 in September after drastically dropping last month below 50 to 49.2 suggestive of a contraction.  The inventory clearing strategies employed by the automakers through August may have actually exaggerated the drop in manufacturing last month.  Late seasonal distortions will have been cleared for September and the expansion seen over the past months will continue although slightly.  A rebound across the board of US economic numbers is also expected for September as the shock from Hurricane Katrina begins to wear off and reconstruction begins.  The slow growth predicted for the month can be mostly attributed to the continuous burden of oil prices on the consumer causing manufacturers to scale back production.   

Previous: In August, manufacturing unexpectedly contracted in the Chicago area for the first time since April 2003.  The index was only expected to fall slightly from 63.5 in July to 61; however it actually dropped to 49.2 * the largest drop on record.  This drop suggested that oil prices are having a hard effect on factory demand.  Also, during August, automakers, starting with General Motors, began to cut production and lower prices to clear out huge stocks of unsold cars.  Manufacturers started to become cautious with their outlooks, seeing the effect that heightened energy prices has had on consumers, and slow production in reaction.  US economic growth also slowed to 3.3 percent in the second quarter as consumers bought even less than expected and bought more foreign goods.  The new orders index tumbled to 46.5 from 69.6 and the production index to 56.2 from 70.5.

University of Michigan Consumer Survey (SEP)(14:00GMT, 10:00EDT)
Consensus: 80.0
Previous: 76.9

Outlook:  Although sliding to a reading of 76.9 in the month of August, the final figure for September looks to be a tad more optimistic with consensus figures pointing to an 80 print.  Contributing to the overall loftier sentiment was a decision by the U.S. government to approve more than $62 billion in extra spending in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.  As a result, a pickup in construction and manufacturing look imminent, leading to an increase in overall domestic expansion prospects.  Additionally contributing are consumers' overall spending habits as both wage and job growth rise.  Ultimately, both increases have counteracted previous concerns of higher energy costs as consumers focus on the brightside future.

Previous:  Final figures for the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey dipped for the first time in three months as higher gasoline prices dampened once heightened personal consumption.  Rising above $60 in the month, crude oil prices hit an all time high of $70.85 on August 30th trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.  Subsequently, gasoline prices at the pump rose to a record $2.61 in the week of the aforementioned release.  This caused sentiment to drop from a previous reading of 96.5 in the month of July to an 89.1 print for August.  Considerably disappointing, the current figure was expected to drop mildly to a 92.7 figure.  Ultimately, consumers are now feeling the pressure of energy costs as it poses a tax on an individual's disposable income.  However, with job and wage growth still relatively strong, the full blown impact of higher costs may be dampened leaving the current reading a temporary thought.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.