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Top FX Market Movers: Traders Move British Pound
By John Kicklighter | Published  09/29/2005 | Currency | Unrated
Top FX Market Movers: Traders Move British Pound

GBP/JPY

Nationwide, Not Good Enough: According to the Nationwide building society, housing prices declined 0.2 percent on the month.  Notably, however, it looks as though they may have stalled in the overall perspective with net lending on residentials and mortgage approvals moving higher on the month.  Indicative of consumer interest, individuals are looking to take advantage of the recent 25 basis point cut by the Bank of England as housing prices rise 1.8 percent on an annualized basis, a nine year low.  Although optimistic as the overall decline may have stabilized, traders opted for more positive Japanese data in pushing the cross lower.

Japanese Consumers Return: For the month, consumers in the world's second largest economy grew confident of future growth prospects.  Underpinned by wage and job growth, in addition to higher stock valuations, consumers hit the stores pushing retail sales higher by 1.5 percent.  Compared to a decline of 2.2 percent in the previous month, the positive figure lends hope to inflationary pressures as the economy looks poised to make a full move into progress and interest rate speculation.

Technically Speaking: On a steady decline, the GBPJPY cross looks to have established a bottom on the 78.6 percent fib level from the five session move.  Currently hovering 199.00 figure, a break below 198.83 would ultimately lead to further downside.  However, contrary to the notion, stochastic is entering oversold territory, suggestive that the decline may be capped in the near term.

NZD/USD

It's All About The Economy: Rising earlier in the session, traders bolstered the Kiwi dollar as economic data pointed to continued growth prospects in the economy.  Although business confidence dipped in the month to a negative 37.5 percent, compared to last month's decline of 32.1 percent, gross domestic product was considerably better than consensus expectations.  For the second quarter, output rose 1.1 percent versus previous estimations of a 0.7percent rise.  Including an upward revision of the previous figure, growth figures are prompting speculation that the central bank will be forced to raise rates as inflation persists.  Adding to the notion, money supply rose more than expected by 7.4 percent, higher than the previous increase of 5 percent.

Growth And Consumption: Attributed to the slight retracement, greenback proponents digested overall growth, released in line with estimates at 3.3 percent, and higher personal consumption figures.  Individual consumption rose 3.4 percent in the second quarter versus earlier estimates of a 3 percent rise.  Both pointed to considerable upside prospects for the world's largest economy as initial jobless claims were considerably less than expected, rising only 356K.

Technically Speaking: Current price action is hovering the 23.6 percent fib level from the three day rise as traders pared back gains in the Kiwi dollar.  Confirming the decline is the death cross and subsequent move lower by stochastic.  However, further upside potential remains as bidders remain resilient at current support.  As a result, definitive confirmation should be obtained through golden cross potential before any entry initiatives.

GBP/USD

Selling Pressure Still Plagues Underlying: Although Nationwide data and mortgage approvals were encouraging, traders continue to be wary that consumer consumption is sluggish through the narrower consumer credit lending figures today.  Remaining relatively similar to the previous month's figures, the 1.3 billion actual figure indicates individual's are unwilling to accrue further consumer debt to fund their respective spending.  As a result, further downward speculation has risen on spats of speculation that continued interest rate cuts are needed to stimulate domestic demand.  Although far from it, central bankers will still review their options as it remains a persistent concern.

Technically Speaking: Similar to the GBPJPY cross, the underlying major looks to be forming considerable support above the 1.7600 figure.  Suggestive of upside potential, a golden cross has occurred in the stochastic as the oscillator moves incrementally higher on the session.  With that said, first test of resistance looks to be the 1.7700 figure with further strength in the 1.7750/60 region.  Conversely, any breaks below current support would see further downside.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.