Let's have a look at my updated hourly chart analytics of the US Oil Fund ETF (USO), and bear in mind, that the American Petrol Institute (API) inventory data now come out on Tuesday's after the close, while the DOE data come out on Wednesday at 10:35 a.m. ET, which adds a bit of volatility and decision-making to situation.

The USO has the near-term technical set-up for upside continuation off of this morning's corrective low at 30.20, which my pattern work argues ended the decline from the January 6 high at 38.76. If my work proves correct, then the USO has just started a recovery into the 34.50-35.00 area. The only question is how much of it will be ahead of tonight's API data? And/or how much could be triggered in reaction to the data? Very tricky indeed, but my overall technical work is telling me that this round of energy data should elicit a positive response from the market.



Mike Paulenoff is a 26-year veteran of the financial markets and author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical chart analysis and trading alerts on all major markets. For more of Mike Paulenoff, sign up for a free 15-Day trial to his MPTrader Diary by clicking here.