Below is what I wrote about the ProShares UltraShort 20-year T-Bond ETF (TBT) exactly 24 hours ago, which appears to have unfolded pretty close to expectations. If the pattern continues to unfold as I expect, the TBT should hold between 39.00 and 38.50 ahead of a potent upleg that continues the advance off of the December 18 low at 35.51.

What I wrote yesterday: What I am not sure of is if the rally from yesterday is the start of a new upleg that should propel the TBT's above the January high at 42.96 into a projected target of 43.50/80? If this rally is not the start of a new upleg, then the TBT's could very well head for the 39.00 area prior to pivoting to the upside into the expected next upleg. On the other hand, if I don't establish a starting long position, then train might be leaving the station without me.



Mike Paulenoff is a 26-year veteran of the financial markets and author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical chart analysis and trading alerts on all major markets. For more of Mike Paulenoff, sign up for a free 15-Day trial to his MPTrader Diary by clicking here.